NC State Wolfpack

0–0 · 0–0 ACC

Way too early

WEEK 1 · 2026

12%

ACC title game

Win the ACC

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 10.3

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Virginia.

If NC State wins out: 33% to win the ACC, 48% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves NC State's path

Your game

…

… · ESPN

NC State at Virginia

Your game. Beat Virginia and your playoff odds are 5%; lose and they drop to 1%.

Virginia 53%

Just win

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

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… · ESPN

Miami at Stanford

ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings; Stanford visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.

Miami 88%

Root for Stanford+4.3 pp title-game odds

…

… · ESPN

SMU at Florida State

ACC race: SMU losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida State visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

SMU 64%

Root for Florida State+3.2 pp title-game odds

46 more games that don't move your needle

Missouri State at Texas A&M

Hawai'i at Stanford

Memphis at UNLV

San José State at USC

New Mexico State at Florida State

North Carolina at TCU · ESPN

Akron at Wake Forest

Massachusetts at Rutgers

Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Toledo at Michigan State

Fresno State at USC

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Florida Atlantic at Florida

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

UTEP at Oklahoma

Kent State at South Carolina

Texas State at Texas

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Boston College at Cincinnati

Oregon State at Houston

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Tulane at Duke

UCLA at California

UAB at Illinois

North Texas at Indiana

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Western Michigan at Michigan

Ohio at Nebraska

Ball State at Ohio State

Boise State at Oregon

Marshall at Penn State

Washington State at Washington

Wyoming at Colorado State

Arkansas State at Memphis

Florida International at South Florida

Western Kentucky at Nevada

UNLV at Hawai'i

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Liberty at James Madison

Sam Houston at Troy

East Carolina at Alabama · ABC

Baylor at Auburn · ABC

Clemson at LSU · ABC

Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC

Notre Dame at Wisconsin

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.