SMU Mustangs

0–0 · 0–0 ACC

Way too early

WEEK 8 · 2026

44%

ACC title game

21%

Win the ACC

23%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 8.8

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-8 job: beat California.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

If SMU wins out: 50% to win the ACC, 82% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves SMU's path

Your game

TBD

SAT OCT 24

California at SMU

Your game. Beat California and your playoff odds are 25%; lose and they drop to 8%.

SMU 90%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Massachusetts at UConn

UConn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

UConn 99%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Pittsburgh at Miami

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Miami 87%

TBD

FRI OCT 23

NC State at Stanford

ACC race: NC State losing helps your spot in the standings; Stanford visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

NC State 62%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Virginia Tech at Clemson

ACC race: Clemson losing helps your spot in the standings; Virginia Tech visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Clemson 85%

TBD

THU OCT 22

James Madison at App State

App State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

James Madison 88%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Boston College at Georgia Tech

ACC race: Georgia Tech losing helps your spot in the standings.

Georgia Tech 78%

TBD

FRI OCT 23

Duke at Virginia

Virginia winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Virginia 62%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Syracuse at North Carolina

ACC race: North Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; Syracuse visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

North Carolina 72%

45 more games that don't move your needle

Middle Tennessee at Florida International

Missouri State at Delaware

South Alabama at Marshall

Liberty at Kennesaw State

New Mexico State at Sam Houston

East Carolina at Memphis

Army at Tulsa

Texas A&M at Alabama

LSU at Auburn

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Oklahoma at Mississippi State

Tennessee at South Carolina

Ole Miss at Texas

Baylor at Kansas

BYU at UCF

Colorado at Oklahoma State

Houston at Utah

Iowa State at Arizona

Kansas State at Arizona State

Texas Tech at Cincinnati

West Virginia at TCU

Oregon at Illinois

Indiana at Michigan

Iowa at Minnesota

Rutgers at Northwestern

Michigan State at UCLA

USC at Wisconsin

San Diego State at Colorado State

Utah State at Texas State

Boise State at Washington State

Rice at Florida Atlantic

North Texas at Navy

UTSA at Tulane

Air Force at Wyoming

Hawai'i at Northern Illinois

San José State at Nevada

Akron at Kent State

Bowling Green at Buffalo

Eastern Michigan at Ohio

Western Michigan at Toledo

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan

Georgia State at Arkansas State

Louisiana at Southern Miss

Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech

UL Monroe at Troy

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.