Ball State Cardinals
1–3 · 0–1 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 pregame guide
Seven flags at Kent State, and now Toledo comes to Muncie
Ball State finally cleaned up its penalties in a 26-13 loss at Kent State. Toledo, winner of the last four in the series, is a much less forgiving opponent for a backup quarterback.
Read the rooting guide →The model sees Ball State as an extreme playoff long shot.
Credit
Photo creditJohn PellinoWikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.Your game
Toledo at Ball StateFinal
Toledo
Final · Toledo 39–24 Ball StateWent the other way ✗
Ball State
Nothing else moves the path
the rest is background footballNothing else meaningfully changes Ball State's path. Watch the rest because it is football.
55 other games had little impact
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Penn State at Northwestern · FOX
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State · ABC
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Boston College at SMU · The CW Network
Notre Dame at North Carolina · ESPN
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Michigan at Minnesota · FOX
Navy at Air Force · CBS
Michigan State at Wisconsin · BTN
Vanderbilt at Georgia · SEC Network
Western Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Florida at Missouri · ABC
Auburn at Tennessee · ESPN
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Louisville at NC State · ACC Network
Virginia at Florida State · ESPN2
Ohio State at Iowa · CBS
Wyoming at North Dakota State · The CW Network
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Ohio at Kent State · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
UTEP at New Mexico · MW+
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Purdue at Illinois · BTN
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
Arkansas at Texas A&M · ESPN2
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Colorado · FOX
Miami at Clemson · ABC
Washington at USC · NBC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Indiana at Rutgers · BTN
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
San José State at Hawai'i · MW+
The rooting list was:Ball State. Nothing else meaningfully moves the path.
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.