🏈 Fan Watch

Toledo Rockets

3–1 · 0–0 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 pregame guide

Toledo's defense rebounded after San Diego State lost both running backs

The Rockets are 3-1 and heavy favorites in their MAC opener at Ball State, and the front seven still has a healthy backfield to stop.

Read the rooting guide →
Toledo linebacker Dallas Gant in a Rockets uniform at the 2023 MAC Championship game.
Toledo linebacker Dallas Gant at the 2023 MAC Championship game.
CreditPhoto creditMrJacon000Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Toledo at Ball State
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ESPN+
Final
Toledo
Final · Toledo 39–24 Ball StateWish granted ✓
Ball State

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Toledo wanted
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ESPN+
Impact 1
Western Michigan
at
Rooted for
Buffalo
Final · Western Michigan 20–17 BuffaloWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

Western Michigan won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection87% if Buffalo won85% with the other result2.4-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 2
Ohio
at
Rooted for
Kent State
Final · Ohio 13–10 Kent StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point title-game boost

Ohio won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection87% if Kent State won85% with the other result2.3-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 3
Rooted for
Bowling Green
at
Miami (OH)
Final · Bowling Green 24–20 Miami (OH)Wish granted ✓
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Miami (OH) lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection87% if Bowling Green won85% with the other result2.1-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
52 other games had little impact
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Penn State at Northwestern · FOX
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State · ABC
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Boston College at SMU · The CW Network
Notre Dame at North Carolina · ESPN
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Michigan at Minnesota · FOX
Navy at Air Force · CBS
Michigan State at Wisconsin · BTN
Vanderbilt at Georgia · SEC Network
Florida at Missouri · ABC
Auburn at Tennessee · ESPN
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Louisville at NC State · ACC Network
Virginia at Florida State · ESPN2
Ohio State at Iowa · CBS
Wyoming at North Dakota State · The CW Network
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
UTEP at New Mexico · MW+
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Purdue at Illinois · BTN
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
Arkansas at Texas A&M · ESPN2
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Colorado · FOX
Miami at Clemson · ABC
Washington at USC · NBC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Indiana at Rutgers · BTN
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
San José State at Hawai'i · MW+
The rooting list was:Toledo, then Buffalo, Kent State, Bowling Green.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.