๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Toledo Rockets

4โ€“1 ยท 1โ€“0 MID-AMERICAN
This week
WEEK 6 ยท 2026
The Week 6 job

Toledo's run game carried the MAC opener, and Buffalo's front just got run over

CJ Miller's 68-yard sealer beat Ball State 39-24 while the passing game went quiet. Homecoming against Buffalo, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, says whether that formula travels.

Read the rooting guide โ†’
Toledo linebacker Dallas Gant in a Rockets uniform at the 2023 MAC Championship game.
Toledo linebacker Dallas Gant at the 2023 MAC Championship game.
CreditPhoto creditMrJacon000Wikimedia Commons ยท CC BY 4.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Buffalo at Toledo
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MAC title-game chanceNow84%Win87%Loss60%
Buffalo
Buffalo 11%Toledo 89%
Toledo

Other impactful games

the highlighted team is the result Toledo wants
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Priority 1
Root for
Kent State
at
Western Michigan
Root for Kent State2.7-point title-game boost

Western Michigan losing would help Toledo in the Mid-American standings; Toledo still plays Western Michigan in week 8.

87% if Kent State wins84% with the other result2.7-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
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Priority 2
Stanford
at
Root for
Notre Dame
Root for Notre Dame1.7-point playoff boost

Notre Dame winning would remove some at-large competition for Toledo.

2% if Notre Dame wins<1% with the other result1.7-point differenceToledo playoff chance
55 more games that don't move your needle
Central Michigan at Ohio ยท ESPN+
Southern Miss at Troy ยท ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State ยท CBSSN
New Mexico State at Florida International ยท ESPN2
Sam Houston at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Missouri State at Western Kentucky ยท CBSSN
South Florida at UTSA ยท ESPN
South Alabama at Arkansas State ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Louisville ยท ESPN
Iowa at Washington
Washington State at Utah State ยท The CW Network
Wyoming at San Josรฉ State ยท CBSSN
Iowa State at BYU ยท ESPN
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Arizona at West Virginia ยท truTV
UCF at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
North Carolina at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN
Wake Forest at NC State ยท The CW Network
Indiana at Nebraska ยท FOX
Tulane at Army ยท CBSSN
Sacramento State at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Northwestern ยท BTN
South Carolina at Florida ยท SEC Network
Old Dominion at App State ยท ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Texas at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt ยท ESPN
Houston at Kansas State ยท FOX
Duke at Georgia Tech ยท ESPN2
Virginia Tech at California ยท ACC Network
Illinois at Michigan State ยท FS1
UCLA at Oregon ยท CBS
Charlotte at North Texas ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Navy ยท CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Akron ยท ESPN+
UConn at Temple ยท ESPNU
Rice at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tennessee at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Maryland at Ohio State ยท BTN
San Diego State at Oregon State ยท USA Network
LSU at Kentucky ยท ESPN
UAB at Memphis ยท ESPN2
Nevada at UTEP ยท FS1
North Dakota State at UNLV ยท The CW Network
Coastal Carolina at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Georgia at Alabama ยท ABC
Syracuse at Virginia ยท ACC Network
USC at Penn State ยท NBC
Air Force at Northern Illinois ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia Southern ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Minnesota at Purdue ยท BTN
Hawai'i at Arizona State ยท FS1
Kansas at Utah ยท ESPN
Boise State at Fresno State ยท The CW Network
Your rooting list:Toledo, then Kent State, Notre Dame.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.