CJ Miller took a handoff with 1:35 left at Ball State, broke through a defense that had just cut the margin to eight, and ran 68 yards to end the game. That run finished a 39-24 Toledo win in the conference opener, and it finished the way the whole night went. Miller carried 20 times for 196 yards and two touchdowns, Connor Walendzak added 16 for 103 and one more, and Toledo ran 51 times for 352 yards at 6.9 a carry. Ball State coach Mike Uremovich said blitzing cost his defense a coverage player and that "we've got to get home faster than that". His unit never recorded a sack and gave up eight runs of 10-plus yards.
The other half of the box score is what makes the win interesting. John Alan Richter completed 19 of 35 for 201 yards, 54.3 percent, his least efficient night of the season, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Two weeks earlier he had gone 16 of 22 for 284 yards and three touchdowns against San Diego State. Toledo won anyway, by 15, on the road, in its first game of league play. That is new information about this team. The offense has a second way to win.
It is also still only one night. Richter's quiet game did not cost Toledo anything against a 1-4 opponent whose defense could not get off the field. Whether a run-first plan holds up when the schedule stiffens is what the next few Saturdays will settle, starting with Western Michigan's visit to the Glass Bowl in Week 8.
Why this particular Homecoming matters
Jason Candle left after the 2025 regular season as Toledo's career wins leader at 81-44, and Mike Jacobs arrived from Mercer with a 94-23 head-coaching record, seven conference titles and no losing seasons. He then rebuilt the roster with 36 transfers, 14 of them from Mercer, in a class 247Sports ranked first in the MAC. Miller and Walendzak running for 299 yards behind a largely transfer-built offensive line is the clearest evidence yet that the overhaul produced a functioning identity rather than a collection of new names.
Saturday is Toledo's official Homecoming game, with the parade that morning in Old Orchard. Buffalo arrives having led Western Michigan 14-10 entering the fourth quarter before Western Michigan scored 10 unanswered points to win 20-17, with only two sacks on the day. A front that could not close a game and could not pressure the quarterback is now facing the heaviest ground attack in the league's upper half. Toledo should run it, and run it again.
Two other things to watch. The rebuilt defense is not the 2025 group, which allowed 254.3 yards and 13.3 points per game, and it still isn't getting to the quarterback, with one sack at Ball State. But Andrew Zock forced a fumble, recovered it himself at the Ball State 38 and finished with 2.5 tackles for loss, and Julian Fox picked off a pass. Takeaways are how this defense is making up for thin pressure, and against a Buffalo offense that just lost a close one, another one or two settles things early.
The second is that MAC coaches picked Toledo third in the preseason poll behind defending champion Western Michigan and Miami, and gave the Rockets no first-place votes. A Homecoming win doesn't close that gap by itself, but it keeps Toledo at 2-0 in league play with the Broncos still on the home schedule. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The model gives Toledo an 89 percent chance. Win and Toledo's title-game odds sit at 87 percent; lose and they fall to 60 percent. The playoff number barely moves either way, 2.3 percent with a win, 0.3 percent without, which is the honest read on a MAC team's October.
One more wrinkle from the series is that Buffalo has taken two of the last three meetings, including 30-15 in 2024, a game in which Richter threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns on 16-of-23 passing. Toledo's only win in that stretch was 31-13 at the Glass Bowl in 2023. This is not a team Toledo has pushed around lately.
Kent State at Western Michigan: root for Kent State
The model gives Kent State a 6% chance to win. Kent State is a long shot here.
Western Michigan is the team picked to win the league and the team Toledo hosts in Week 8, and every Broncos conference loss is a direct subtraction from their path to Detroit. Kent State winning in Kalamazoo would nudge Toledo's title-game odds up about 2.9 percentage points, to roughly 87 percent instead of about 84 percent. It is also a 6 percent proposition since Western Michigan is a heavy home favorite, so enjoy it if it happens rather than planning on it. Same window, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, so it is a second tab, not a second priority.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.