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Ohio State Buckeyes

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 12 · 2026
32%
Big Ten title game
15%
Win the Big Ten
80%
Make the playoff
36%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.2
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-12 job: beat Nebraska.
Playoff odds by week
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If Ohio State wins out: 57% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Ohio State's path
Your game
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Ohio State at Nebraska

Your game. Beat Nebraska and your playoff odds are 85%; lose and they drop to 55%.

Ohio State 83%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Rutgers at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 90%
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Arkansas at Texas

Arkansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 85%
TBD
FRI NOV 20
Oregon at Michigan State

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings.

Oregon 87%
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Indiana at Washington

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 77%
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Iowa at Illinois

Illinois winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Iowa 68%
…
…
SMU at Notre Dame

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and SMU winning protects it.

Notre Dame 92%
TBD
SAT NOV 21
Vanderbilt at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 64%
57 more games that don't move your needle
Texas Tech at Baylor
Maryland at USC
Georgia at South Carolina
Utah at TCU
Northwestern at Minnesota
Ball State at Ohio
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan
Miami (OH) at Kent State
Akron at Massachusetts
Bowling Green at Toledo
Central Michigan at Buffalo
Rice at Temple
Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech
Clemson at Duke
Kentucky at Missouri
Texas A&M at Oklahoma
LSU at Tennessee
Arizona at Kansas State
BYU at Kansas
Colorado at Cincinnati
Houston at West Virginia
Iowa State at UCF
Oklahoma State at Arizona State
Virginia Tech at Miami
NC State at Florida State
North Carolina at Virginia
Pittsburgh at Louisville
Stanford at California
Syracuse at Boston College
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
UCLA at Michigan
Wisconsin at Purdue
Colorado State at Fresno State
Utah State at Oregon State
Washington State at Texas State
San Diego State at Boise State
Old Dominion at UConn
East Carolina at Army
Charlotte at Tulsa
South Florida at Florida Atlantic
Memphis at Navy
North Texas at Tulane
UTSA at UAB
Hawai'i at Nevada
New Mexico at Wyoming
UNLV at San José State
UTEP at Air Force
UL Monroe at App State
Coastal Carolina at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Troy
Georgia State at Marshall
Delaware at New Mexico State
Florida International at Kennesaw State
Missouri State at Jacksonville State
Western Kentucky at Liberty
Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston
South Alabama at Southern Miss

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.