Iowa Hawkeyes

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

17%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

46%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 9.3

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-4 job: beat Michigan.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Iowa wins out: 35% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Iowa's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Your game. Beat Michigan and your playoff odds are 60%; lose and they drop to 28%.

Iowa 54%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 97%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Wisconsin visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Penn State 92%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ole Miss 79%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Iowa State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 76%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 80%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Oregon winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Oregon 63%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas at Tennessee

Tennessee winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Illinois visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Ohio State 96%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas A&M at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 62%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 65%

46 more games that don't move your needle

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

Tulsa at Arkansas

Oklahoma at Georgia

Missouri at Mississippi State

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Minnesota at Washington

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.