Bryce Underwood put the ball on the ground on Michigan's opening drive Saturday, Savion Hiter lost another deep in Michigan territory, and UTEP turned both short fields into touchdowns, a 45-yard play-action strike to Carver Cheeks on third-and-1 and an 18-yard flip to Lamar Sperling off a fake run, to lead 14-7 in front of 110,668, the largest crowd ever to watch the Miners play. Michigan won 52-17. The Wolverines outscored UTEP 45-3 after falling behind, including 28 points in the third quarter capped by Jonah Lea'ea's pick-six.
Kyle Whittingham spent his postgame on the giveaways. He called fumbles a "big concern" and said "six in three games is way too many." He also pointed out that Michigan had only six first-half possessions, and that giving the ball away on two of them plus a three-and-out "doesn't leave a lot of room for production." Two early penalties, a holding call on tight end Jalen Hoffman and an offside on Dom Nichols, wiped out a likely Michigan scoring drive and helped UTEP to its first seven points. His halftime message was to "raise the level of passion, raise the level of energy and take care of the football."
Iowa at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Michigan opens Big Ten play at 47% against Iowa, the closest thing to a coin flip on the schedule until November. Whittingham, who scouted the Hawkeyes publicly this week, said Iowa "lead[s] the nation in defense right now" in both total and scoring defense, called Phil Parker's unit fundamentally sound, physical and disciplined, and predicted a low-scoring game. The market agrees. Michigan opened a 4.5-point favorite with a total between 37.5 and 38.5, implying something like Michigan 21.5, Iowa 17.
That math is what makes the fumbles matter. Against UTEP, two lost fumbles cost Michigan 14 points and the Wolverines got all of them back and 31 more in a single quarter. In a game projected to produce 38 total points, one short-field touchdown is the difference, and there is no third-quarter avalanche waiting to erase it. Michigan's offense entered the week ranked 62nd nationally in scoring at 27.3 points per game and 98th in total offense. The UTEP number was the outlier, not the identity.
So the thing to want Saturday is dull and specific. It is a first quarter in which Underwood, Hiter and the line hold onto the football and Michigan gets off the field with the ball still in its hands.
There is reason to think Underwood can do his part. He was 19-of-25 for 223 yards and two touchdowns against UTEP, his most efficient game of the season, and Whittingham praised the decision-making, "He took care of the football when he threw it," while PFF graded him a season-high 72.2. The passing yardage went to Andrew Marsh, who caught 10 balls for 105 yards and a score, and JJ Buchanan, whose seven catches for 92 yards and a touchdown were a career high. What Michigan did not do, per that same PFF summary, was attack downfield much, and true tight ends drew zero targets. Against a defense that does not break, a short, horizontal passing game has to be error-free to be enough.
Remember too that Whittingham's endorsement of his quarterback has always been conditional. On September 7 he said Underwood was Michigan's quarterback at that moment but that the status was not indefinite, and that the staff needed to see improvement. Three efficient weeks have moved that in Underwood's favor. A fourth straight opening-drive fumble, in a one-score Big Ten game, moves it back, and freshman Tommy Carr's fourth-quarter debut against UTEP, 2-for-2 for 23 yards including a completion to Salesi Moa, is the reminder that there is a name behind Underwood now, even if it arrived in garbage time.
The protection in front of him is the other live question. Michigan has used three different starting offensive-line combinations in three games; against UTEP the staff moved Evan Link to left tackle and Blake Frazier to right tackle, Zack Marshall started at tight end with Hoffman rotating behind him, and Hogan Hansen made his season debut. Andrew Sprague, hurt in a sudden incident roughly 24 hours before kickoff against UTEP, has an uncertain return timeline; Whittingham said he hopes to have him back soon. Jordan Marshall, carrying a nagging injury residual from the Oklahoma game, is hoped to be ready to play, paired with Hiter in the backfield.
The defense is not the worry. Jay Hill's front put up four sacks and 11 tackles for loss against UTEP, held the Miners to 57 net rushing yards on 32 carries and 150 total yards on 49 plays, and got 11 different defenders in on at least part of a tackle for loss. That unit can keep Michigan in a 17-14 game all afternoon. One quiet thing is worth watching inside it. Rod Moore played 22 snaps in a six-man safety rotation Saturday, his first published snap count of the season after three knee surgeries. A blowout with 35 defenders spinning through says little. A tight, low-scoring Iowa game, where Hill has to play his best people, is the first real look at whether Moore is a featured safety or a managed one.
If Michigan wins, its playoff odds sit at 15.6%. If Iowa wins, 6.7%. That gap is the largest single swing on Michigan's schedule this month, and it arrives in the first conference game after a 3-0 nonconference run that did not answer much.
Minnesota at Washington: root for Minnesota
Minnesota wins this one about 13% of the time, so treat it as a nice thing to have on in the background rather than something Michigan is counting on. It matters because Washington is a Big Ten team sitting ahead of Michigan in the conference standings picture; a Minnesota win puts a loss on a direct rival for the league's top spots and is worth about 1.3 percentage points of Michigan playoff odds, 12.0% with the upset, 10.7% without it. Michigan also visits Minnesota next week, which is its own reason to watch the Gophers. Kickoff is 11 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.