Delaware State quarterback Ui Ale hit Nathan Stewart for a 90-yard touchdown and then found Jaylin Terzado from 20 yards for a touchdown, and an FCS team walked into halftime having outgained South Florida 288-281. Both defensive captains, linebacker Grayson Howard and defensive end C.J. Hicks, watched it happen from the sideline. Then D.J. Crowther ripped off touchdown runs of 10, 38 and 39 yards, USF outscored Delaware State 31-0 after the break, and the Bulls won 59-17 to go to 3-0 for the first time since 2018.
Brian Hartline did not spend the podium celebrating. "We lost half a game because we didn't execute the right way," he said, and, "To lose a whole half of football is not acceptable." He liked the response. He also said "we're running out of time," and that "everyone is telling me it takes time but I'm not going to believe that." That is a first-year head coach who took this job after coordinating Ohio State's offense, brought in Tim Beck to run the offense and Josh Aldridge to run the defense, and has no interest in grading his rebuilt roster on a curve.
Here is why he has a case, and why Saturday is the week to settle it.
The good news is real, and it's mostly the quarterback
Michael Van Buren Jr. went 23-of-32 for 300 yards and a touchdown, his first 300-yard game as a Bull, and did not turn it over. Through three games he has 639 yards and three touchdowns, Crowther has 182 rushing yards and four scores, and Joshua Porter has 181 receiving yards. For an offense that replaced nearly everything, that is the most encouraging stretch of the season.
The finishing changed too. Against FIU in the opener, Nico Gramatica kicked four field goals. Against Delaware State he attempted one, a 20-yarder in the final two minutes, while the Bulls scored eight touchdowns. USF is putting drives in the end zone instead of settling, which is exactly the habit a team needs before American play resumes.
What the 59-17 didn't answer
The wins have followed the same shape. USF led 21-17 late in the first half against an FCS opponent before finishing on a 38-0 run, and at Army it trailed 24-14 with 4:59 remaining before rallying to win 28-24. USF has been terrific in second halves and ordinary before them. And the 59-17 game was nonconference against Delaware State, the only FCS team on the schedule, so it tells you almost nothing about how this team stacks up in the American.
The defense's version of that problem has a personnel wrinkle. When Hartline was asked when Howard would be back, his answer was "This season." No diagnosis, no date. Whoever has been filling those roles is going to keep filling them Saturday, and probably in October too.
Saturday at Bowling Green
South Florida plays at Bowling Green on Saturday at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the Bulls' first-ever trip to Doyt L. Perry Stadium and only the second meeting between the programs. It is Bowling Green's Homecoming, and the home sideline belongs to Eddie George, meaning two Ohio State alumni meet as head coaches. Our model has USF winning 93% of the time; ESPN Analytics is at 93.2% and DraftKings has the Bulls favored by 15.5.
The interesting part is what Bowling Green cannot do. The Falcons surrendered 7.8 yards a carry in each of their first two games, 258 rushing yards to Tarleton State, 264 to Nebraska. USF just ran for 290 yards and seven touchdowns. If the Bulls want to prove the slow starts were noise and not a habit, this is the softest front they will line up against all year. Score on the first three drives here and Hartline's complaint goes away. Trail at the half again against an 0-3 team and the problem is USF's, not the schedule's.
A win sends USF into its Oct. 3 home game against Temple at 4-0 with conference play back on.
The rest of the board
Nothing this week moves USF as much as its own game, but four results are worth a glance.
Navy at UAB: root for UAB
The one with a direct standings consequence. Navy is an American rival; a UAB win puts a loss on a conference competitor's ledger. UAB has about a 45% chance at home. USF's conference title-game odds land near 73% if UAB wins and 71% if Navy does, a gap of about 1.9 percentage points. Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Liberty at Coastal Carolina: root for Coastal Carolina
Pure playoff-field math says fewer strong non-Power teams ahead of USF is better. Coastal is a home underdog at roughly 11%, so file this one under pleasant surprise. USF's playoff odds sit near 20% with a Coastal win and near 17% otherwise, worth about 2.8 points. Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
James Madison at Old Dominion: root for Old Dominion
The biggest number on the board and the least likely. James Madison is the Group of Five résumé USF would rather not see stay unbeaten. Old Dominion wins about 10% of the time; USF's playoff odds come out near 20% in that branch versus about 17% in the other, a swing of roughly 2.9 points. Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Colorado State at UTSA: root for UTSA
Different mechanism entirely. UTSA hosts USF in Week 6, so a strong UTSA makes that October road win worth more when the committee sorts résumés. The Roadrunners are an 81% favorite at home, and the difference is about 2.2 points of playoff odds. Saturday, noon ET, ESPNU.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.