South Florida Bulls

0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Way too early

WEEK 10 · 2026

62%

American title game

41%

Win the American

24%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 11.6

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-10 job: beat East Carolina.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If South Florida wins out: 69% to win the American, 56% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path

Your game

TBD

FRI NOV 6

South Florida at East Carolina

Your game. Beat East Carolina and your playoff odds are 31%; lose and they drop to 10%.

South Florida 67%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

THU NOV 5

James Madison at Southern Miss

Southern Miss winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

James Madison 93%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Rice at North Texas

American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings.

North Texas 96%

TBD

THU NOV 5

UTSA at Florida Atlantic

American Athletic race: UTSA losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida Atlantic visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

UTSA 80%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Tulsa at Tulane

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Tulane in week 13.

Tulane 94%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina

Old Dominion winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Old Dominion 84%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

BYU at Utah

BYU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 78%

54 more games that don't move your needle

TCU at Arizona

Temple at Navy

Ohio at Akron

Buffalo at Miami (OH)

Ball State at Massachusetts

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan

Virginia Tech at SMU

Arkansas at Auburn

Oklahoma at Florida

Alabama at LSU

Georgia at Ole Miss

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Texas at Missouri

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Kentucky at Tennessee

UCF at Kansas

Cincinnati at Houston

Colorado at Arizona State

Iowa State at Baylor

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Clemson at Syracuse

Duke at NC State

Louisville at Georgia Tech

Florida State at Boston College

North Carolina at UConn

Nebraska at Illinois

Michigan State at Michigan

UCLA at Minnesota

Iowa at Northwestern

Oregon at Ohio State

Maryland at Purdue

Penn State at Washington

Rutgers at Wisconsin

Boise State at Colorado State

Texas State at Oregon State

Fresno State at Utah State

Charlotte at UAB

Air Force at Army

Hawai'i at UTEP

New Mexico at Nevada

Northern Illinois at San José State

Wyoming at UNLV

Georgia State at App State

UL Monroe at Arkansas State

Marshall at Georgia Southern

South Alabama at Louisiana

Liberty at New Mexico State

Delaware at Kennesaw State

Missouri State at Florida International

Sam Houston at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee

Louisiana Tech at Troy

Miami at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.