Indiana Hoosiers
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
74%
Big Ten title game
55%
Win the Big Ten
98%
Make the playoff
82%
First-round bye
avg seed 2.6
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-5 job: beat Rutgers.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Indiana's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Indiana at Rutgers
Your game. Beat Rutgers and your playoff odds are 98%; lose and they drop to 94%.
Indiana 94%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
FRI OCT 2
Penn State at Northwestern
Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.
Penn State 71%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Seeding watch: North Carolina winning moves you from around the 3rd seed toward the 2nd — a friendlier bracket.
Notre Dame 97%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Texas Tech at Colorado
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Colorado winning protects it.
Texas Tech 89%
51 more games that don't move your needle
Washington at USC
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Ohio State at Iowa
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Navy at Air Force
Temple at South Florida
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Ohio at Kent State
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
Marshall at James Madison
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.