🏈 Fan Watch

#23Boise State Broncos

4–1 · 1–0 PAC-12
This week
WEEK 6 · 2026
The Week 6 job

Boise State hasn't held the Milk Can since 2022 and the leaks are still there

The Broncos' defense had its best disruption game of the season against Utah State and still gave up two 40-yard runs. Now comes Fresno State.

Read the rooting guide →
Boise State runs the ball against Air Force in 2025.
Boise State faces Air Force in 2025.
CreditPhoto creditTrevor CokleyWikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Your game

Boise State at Fresno State
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The CW Network
playoff chanceNow19%Win29%Loss10%
Boise State
Boise State 43%Fresno State 57%
Fresno State

Other impactful games

the highlighted team is the result Boise State wants
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The CW Network
Priority 1
Washington State
at
Root for
Utah State
Root for Utah State4.4-point title-game boost

Washington State losing would help Boise State in the Pac-12 standings; Boise State beat Utah State, so another Utah State win would strengthen Boise State's résumé; Boise State still plays Washington State in week 8.

80% if Utah State wins76% with the other result4.4-point differenceBoise State Pac-12 title-game chance
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ESPNU
Priority 2
James Madison
at
Root for
Georgia Southern
Root for Georgia Southern2.3-point playoff boost

Georgia Southern winning would remove some at-large competition for Boise State.

21% if Georgia Southern wins18% with the other result2.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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CBS
Priority 3
Root for
UCLA
at
Oregon
Root for UCLA1.3-point playoff boost

Oregon losing would soften the effect of Boise State's loss to them.

20% if UCLA wins18% with the other result1.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
54 more games that don't move your needle
Southern Miss at Troy · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Florida International · ESPN2
Sam Houston at Liberty · ESPNU
Missouri State at Western Kentucky · CBSSN
South Florida at UTSA · ESPN
South Alabama at Arkansas State · ESPN2
Florida State at Louisville · ESPN
Iowa at Washington
Wyoming at San José State · CBSSN
Iowa State at BYU · ESPN
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Arizona at West Virginia · truTV
UCF at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
North Carolina at Pittsburgh · ESPN
Wake Forest at NC State · The CW Network
Indiana at Nebraska · FOX
Tulane at Army · CBSSN
Sacramento State at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Ball State at Northwestern · BTN
South Carolina at Florida · SEC Network
Old Dominion at App State · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Texas at Oklahoma · ABC
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Houston at Kansas State · FOX
Duke at Georgia Tech · ESPN2
Stanford at Notre Dame · NBC
Virginia Tech at California · ACC Network
Illinois at Michigan State · FS1
Charlotte at North Texas · ESPN+
Tulsa at Navy · CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Buffalo at Toledo · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Ohio · ESPN+
Kent State at Western Michigan · ESPN+
UConn at Temple · ESPNU
Rice at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tennessee at Arkansas · SEC Network
Maryland at Ohio State · BTN
San Diego State at Oregon State · USA Network
LSU at Kentucky · ESPN
UAB at Memphis · ESPN2
Nevada at UTEP · FS1
North Dakota State at UNLV · The CW Network
Coastal Carolina at Marshall · ESPN+
Georgia at Alabama · ABC
Syracuse at Virginia · ACC Network
USC at Penn State · NBC
Air Force at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Minnesota at Purdue · BTN
Hawai'i at Arizona State · FS1
Kansas at Utah · ESPN
Your rooting list:Boise State, then Utah State, Georgia Southern, UCLA.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.