Javen Jacobs took a handoff and ran 46 yards, then later broke off another gain of 40-plus, and Utah State's back finished with 139 yards on 10 carries in a game Boise State won 37-18 on Saturday. That happened on the same afternoon the Broncos recorded six sacks and nine tackles for loss, their most sacks in a game since Dec. 6, 2024, with Jayden Virgin-Morgan credited with one of them, and linebacker Jake Ripp intercepted a pass and returned it 21 yards for a touchdown. The pass rush that was supposed to carry a rebuilt defense finally showed up in full. It also could not keep a single running back from ripping off two of the longest plays of Boise State's season.
That is the real story of the Pac-12 opener, and it matters this week because the Broncos' fourth-quarter arithmetic keeps running into the same number. Fourteen plays of 40 or more yards allowed through five games. Saturday says the disruption is real. It also says the disruption does not erase the long runs. Spencer Danielson called it "absolutely the most complete game we've played" and pointed to third- and fourth-down defense as "the eraser" for the explosive-play problem. Jacobs's two long runs came in the same game.
Danielson has three consecutive conference championships and a 2024 playoff trip on his résumé, and the school extended him through 2030 in April, so the standard here is not "win the easy one." It's win in Fresno.
Saturday in Fresno is the whole week
Boise State plays at Fresno State on Saturday, Oct. 10, at 10:30 p.m. ET on The CW Network, ranked No. 23, the only Pac-12 or Group of Six team in the AP Top 25, and still unable to say it has beaten this opponent recently. Fresno State has won three straight in the series, including a 30-7 beating on The Blue last year, and Boise State's last win was 40-20 in 2022, the same season Fresno took the Mountain West title game 28-16. The Milk Can has been in Fresno for three years.
It is also the first real road test of the season that means anything. Oregon was close and Western Michigan was comfortable, but Utah State was the second straight home game, so nothing the Broncos did in the opener tells you how they'll handle a hostile Saturday night with a trophy on the line. The simulations do not like Boise State's chances. Fresno State is the home favorite, and Boise State's win probability sits at 43%.
Win, and Boise State's chance of reaching the Pac-12 title game sits around 93% with a playoff number near 29%. Lose, and those land closer to 66% and 11%. Those are two different versions of this season, not a sequence. One Saturday night decides which one the Broncos are living in.
What to watch, in order of how much it will decide the game. First, whether the front seven can sack the quarterback and keep a running back from breaking a 40-yarder in the same drive, and whether Maddux Madsen keeps doing what he has been doing. Madsen went 17-of-21 for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against Utah State, adding 42 rushing yards on seven carries. That matters more than usual here, because Fresno State's defense is allowing 16 points per game, among the conference's best against a Boise offense averaging 227 rushing and 212 passing yards. In a game that may come down to field position and short drives, one bad throw is a score. Boise State also committed only two penalties for 25 yards on Saturday, the kind of execution that travels better than explosive plays do. Though the Broncos lost a fumble in that game too, so the clean-football file isn't closed.
The health news is not great. A report following Boise State's Oct. 3 win over Utah State had Boise State dealing with injuries to Sire Gaines, starting left guard Carson Rasmussen and leading receiver Rasean Jones.
Two games elsewhere that change Boise State's odds
Washington State at Utah State: root for Utah State
Friday, Oct. 9, 9:00 p.m. ET on The CW Network. Utah State wins about 45% of the time, and a Washington State loss is worth roughly 4.5 percentage points of Pac-12 title-game odds to Boise State, 80% in the branch where the Aggies win, 76% in the branch where they don't. The mechanism is simple standings math. Washington State is a conference rival Boise State also visits later, and every loss the Cougars take is a loss Boise State doesn't need to make up.
James Madison at Georgia Southern: root for Georgia Southern
Saturday, Oct. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU. This one is a long shot. Georgia Southern wins about 10% of the time at home. If it happens, Boise State's playoff odds sit near 21% rather than 18%, a 2.7-point swing, because James Madison is one of the at-large contenders the Broncos would have to climb over. If it comes in, the Broncos will find out about it on the bus in Fresno, where their own business gets settled later that night.
Full numbers and the week's board are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.