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#1Ohio State Buckeyes

9–0 · 6–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
79%
Big Ten title game
37%
Win the Big Ten
>99%
Make the playoff
89%
First-round bye
avg seed 2.4
How the week went: playoff odds >99% → >99% · title-game odds 79% → 81%.
Playoff odds by week
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The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Ohio State's path
Your game
…
… · NBC
UCLA at #1 Ohio State

Your game. Beat UCLA and your playoff odds are >99%; lose and they drop to 97%.

Final · UCLA 10–48 Ohio StateWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · BTN
Wisconsin at #2 Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Wisconsin — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Indiana in week 15.

Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Root for Wisconsin+16.4 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · FOX
#18 Michigan at Northwestern

Big Ten race: Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Michigan in week 14.

Final · Michigan 24–22 NorthwesternWent the other way ✗
Root for Northwestern+5.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · FOX
Minnesota at #8 Oregon

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Minnesota — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗
Root for Minnesota+5.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and South Carolina winning protects it.

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+2.6 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · CBS
Penn State at Michigan State

Big Ten race: Michigan State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Penn State — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Penn State 28–10 Michigan StateWish granted ✓
Root for Penn State+2.1 pp title-game odds
52 more games that don't move your needle
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.