#7Penn State Nittany Lions
3–1 · 0–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
22%
Big Ten title game
14%
Win the Big Ten
86%
Make the playoff
43%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.8
How the week went: playoff odds 86% → 22% · title-game odds 22% → 2%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Penn State's pathYour game
…
… · CBS
#7 Penn State at UCLA
Your game. Beat UCLA and your playoff odds are 87%; lose and they drop to 70%.
Final · Penn State 37–42 UCLAWent the other way ✗
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · NBC
Minnesota at #1 Ohio State
Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Ohio State in week 10.
Final · Minnesota 3–42 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Minnesota+5.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · NBC
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame
Boise State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Boise State 7–28 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Root for Boise State+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Miami at #18 Florida State
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Florida State winning protects it.
Final · Miami 28–22 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida State+3.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · FOX
Wisconsin at #20 Michigan
Big Ten race: Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Wisconsin 10–24 MichiganWent the other way ✗
Root for Wisconsin+2.5 pp title-game odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Texas at Florida · ESPN
Colorado at TCU · FOX
Sam Houston at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware · CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida · ESPN2
New Mexico at San José State · FS1
West Virginia at BYU · ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia · ABC
Illinois at Purdue · BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina · ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor · ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Air Force at Navy · CBS
Army at UAB · ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State · CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
UTSA at Temple · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona · truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama · ABC
Washington at Maryland · BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern · BTN
Oregon State at App State · ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville · ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU · ACC Network
Florida International at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma · SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska · FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston · ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming · CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M · SEC Network
Kansas at UCF · ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis · ESPNU
Duke at California · ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.