#8Texas Tech Red Raiders

8–1 · 5–1 BIG 12

In the books

WEEK 11 · 2025

The Week 11 recap

Texas Tech beat BYU. Playoff odds moved from 69% to 81%.

…

…

ABC

Final

BYU

Final · BYU 7–29 Texas TechWish granted ✓

Texas Tech

…

…

NBC

Impact 1

Rooted for

Navy

at

Notre Dame

Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection74% if Navy won69% with the other result4.8-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 2

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Mississippi State won69% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 3

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

Missouri

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.2-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Missouri won15% with the other result4.2-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance

…

…

FOX

Impact 4

Rooted for

Iowa State

at

TCU

Final · Iowa State 20–17 TCUWish granted ✓

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Iowa State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas Tech's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection71% if Iowa State won69% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance

…

…

TNT

Impact 5

Colorado

at

Rooted for

West Virginia

Final · Colorado 22–29 West VirginiaWish granted ✓

Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

West Virginia won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 14 game against Texas Tech.

Entering-week projection70% if West Virginia won68% with the other result2-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 6

Rooted for

LSU

at

Alabama

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.1-point first-round-bye boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if LSU won17% with the other result3.1-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance

…

…

ESPN+

Impact 7

Charlotte

at

Rooted for

East Carolina

Final · Charlotte 22–48 East CarolinaWish granted ✓

Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

East Carolina won, helping protect Texas Tech's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection17% if East Carolina won14% with the other result2.9-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance

…

…

FOX

Impact 8

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Penn State

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Penn State won16% with the other result2.9-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance

…

…

CBS

Impact 9

Oregon

at

Rooted for

Iowa

Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Iowa won69% with the other result1.3-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance

41 other games had little impact

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+

Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2

Houston at UCF · FS1

UTSA at South Florida · ESPN

Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU

Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2

Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2

Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2

Northwestern at USC · FOX

Tulane at Memphis · ESPN

SMU at Boston College · ACC Network

James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2

Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU

Temple at Army · CBSSN

Ohio State at Purdue · BTN

Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

UAB at Rice · ESPN+

Maryland at Rutgers · FS1

Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Syracuse at Miami · ESPN

Duke at UConn · CBSSN

Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Washington at Wisconsin · BTN

Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network

Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+

Air Force at San José State · FS1

California at Louisville · ESPN2

Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network

Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN

Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network

Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN

Nebraska at UCLA · FOX

UNLV at Colorado State · FS1

Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network

San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.