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#5Texas Tech Red Raiders

10–1 · 7–1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
97%
Big 12 title game
75%
Win the Big 12
91%
Make the playoff
48%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.8
How the week went: playoff odds 91% → 96% · title-game odds 97% → 100%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Texas Tech wins out: 77% to win the Big 12, 92% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas Tech's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN
#5 Texas Tech at West Virginia

Your game. Beat West Virginia and your playoff odds are 92%; lose and they drop to 59%.

Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#4 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Georgia Tech winning protects it.

Final · Georgia 16–9 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Root for Georgia Tech+8.0 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #16 Texas

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Texas winning protects it.

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWish granted ✓
Root for Texas+5.2 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · FOX
#25 Arizona at #20 Arizona State

Big 12 race: Arizona State losing helps your spot in the standings; Arizona State losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · Arizona 23–7 Arizona StateWish granted ✓
Root for Arizona+4.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
#7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBS
#6 Oregon at Washington

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Washington winning protects it.

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+2.8 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#10 Alabama at Auburn

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
UCF at #11 BYU

You beat UCF — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play BYU in week 15.

Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+1.2 pp playoff odds
58 more games that don't move your needle
Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN
Vanderbilt at Tennessee · ESPN
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan · FOX
Miami at Pittsburgh · ABC
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.