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#6Texas Tech Red Raiders

9–1 · 6–1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
96%
Big 12 title game
71%
Win the Big 12
81%
Make the playoff
26%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.0
How the week went: playoff odds 81% → 93% · title-game odds 96% → 98%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Texas Tech wins out: 74% to win the Big 12, 84% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas Tech's path
Your game
…
… · FOX
UCF at #6 Texas Tech

Your game. Beat UCF and your playoff odds are 83%; lose and they drop to 56%.

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#13 Utah at Baylor

You already beat Utah; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Root for Baylor+5.5 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and South Carolina winning protects it.

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+4.5 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · truTV
West Virginia at Arizona State

Arizona State losing softens the sting of your loss to them; West Virginia visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · West Virginia 23–25 Arizona StateWent the other way ✗
Root for West Virginia+2.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#11 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Oklahoma winning protects it.

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓
Root for Oklahoma+2.8 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPNU
Kent State at Akron

You already beat Kent State; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Kent State 42–35 AkronWent the other way ✗
Root for Akron+1.2 pp playoff odds
51 more games that don't move your needle
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.