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#24South Florida Bulls

7–2 · 4–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
75%
American title game
44%
Win the American
33%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.4
How the week went: playoff odds 33% → 2% · title-game odds 75% → 5%.
Playoff odds by week
123456789101112

If South Florida wins out: 59% to win the American, 47% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN2
#24 South Florida at Navy

Your game. Beat Navy and your playoff odds are 43%; lose and they drop to 6%.

Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB

American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat North Texas; them losing again keeps them behind you; UAB visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · North Texas 53–24 UABWent the other way ✗
Root for UAB+13.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Tulane

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Florida Atlantic — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Florida Atlantic 24–35 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida Atlantic+10.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
App State at James Madison

App State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for App State+5.6 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPNU
Memphis at East Carolina

American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Memphis 27–31 East CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for Memphis+4.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBSSN
Boise State at San Diego State

You already beat Boise State; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Root for San Diego State+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#19 Virginia at Duke

Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Root for Duke+1.5 pp playoff odds
51 more games that don't move your needle
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.