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South Florida Bulls

6–2 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
41%
American title game
21%
Win the American
4%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.9
How the week went: playoff odds 4% → 8% · title-game odds 41% → 31%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678910

If South Florida wins out: 47% to win the American, 10% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#25 Memphis at Rice

American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings; Memphis losing softens the sting of your loss to them; Rice visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+9.3 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Tulane at UTSA

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; UTSA visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓
Root for UTSA+7.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
Fresno State at Boise State

You already beat Boise State; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓
Root for Fresno State+3.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Texas State

Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas State+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Navy at North Texas

American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat North Texas; them losing again keeps them behind you; Navy visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Navy+2.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
East Carolina at Temple

American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · East Carolina 45–14 TempleWent the other way ✗
Root for Temple+1.9 pp title-game odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10).