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#15Virginia Cavaliers

7–1 · 4–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
41%
ACC title game
14%
Win the ACC
19%
Make the playoff
2%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.2
How the week went: playoff odds 19% → 29% · title-game odds 41% → 71%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678910

If Virginia wins out: 35% to win the ACC, 55% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Virginia's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN2
#15 Virginia at California

Your game. Beat California and your playoff odds are 25%; lose and they drop to 7%.

Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
North Carolina at Syracuse

ACC race: Syracuse losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat North Carolina — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · North Carolina 27–10 SyracuseWish granted ✓
Root for North Carolina+8.1 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
#8 Georgia Tech at NC State

ACC race: Georgia Tech losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓
Root for NC State+6.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
Pittsburgh at Stanford

ACC race: Pittsburgh losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Stanford — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Pittsburgh 35–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Root for Stanford+5.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
Duke at Clemson

ACC race: Duke losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Duke in week 12.

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Root for Clemson+5.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
#10 Miami at SMU

ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓
Root for SMU+4.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · The CW Network
#16 Louisville at Virginia Tech

ACC race: Louisville losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat Louisville; them losing again keeps them behind you; Virginia Tech visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Root for Virginia Tech+3.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
#17 Cincinnati at #24 Utah

Utah winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Cincinnati 14–45 UtahWish granted ✓
Root for Utah+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Florida State

ACC race: Wake Forest losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Florida State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Wake Forest in week 11.

Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Root for Florida State+1.9 pp title-game odds
43 more games that don't move your needle
New Mexico at UNLV
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.