#15Virginia Cavaliers

7–1 · 4–0 ACC

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

Virginia beat California. Playoff odds moved from 19% to 29%.

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ESPN2

Final

Virginia

Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWish granted ✓

California

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ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

North Carolina

at

Syracuse

Final · North Carolina 27–10 SyracuseWish granted ✓

Projected 8.1-point title-game boost

Syracuse lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection46% if North Carolina won38% with the other result8.1-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 2

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

NC State

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓

Projected 6.5-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection45% if NC State won38% with the other result6.5-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 3

Pittsburgh

at

Rooted for

Stanford

Final · Pittsburgh 35–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.8-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection46% if Stanford won40% with the other result5.8-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 4

Duke

at

Rooted for

Clemson

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.7-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection42% if Clemson won36% with the other result5.7-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 5

Miami

at

Rooted for

SMU

Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓

Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Miami lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection43% if SMU won39% with the other result4.5-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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The CW Network

Impact 6

Louisville

at

Rooted for

Virginia Tech

Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.6-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if Virginia Tech won40% with the other result3.6-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 7

Cincinnati

at

Rooted for

Utah

Final · Cincinnati 14–45 UtahWish granted ✓

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Utah won, thinning out the at-large competition for Virginia's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection19% if Utah won17% with the other result1.3-point differenceVirginia playoff chance

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ACC Network

Impact 8

Wake Forest

at

Rooted for

Florida State

Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWish granted ✓

Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

Wake Forest lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection41% if Florida State won39% with the other result1.9-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance

43 other games had little impact

New Mexico at UNLV

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

Memphis at Rice · ESPN2

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Navy at North Texas · ESPN2

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

Georgia at Florida · ABC

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Fresno State at Boise State · FS1

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.