#24Virginia Cavaliers
4–1 · 2–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
16%
ACC title game
5%
Win the ACC
4%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 9.8
How the week went: playoff odds 4% → 10% · title-game odds 16% → 34%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Virginia's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN2
#24 Virginia at Louisville
Your game. Beat Louisville and your playoff odds are 12%; lose and they drop to 2%.
Final · Virginia 30–27 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#3 Miami at #18 Florida State
ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Florida State — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · Miami 28–22 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida State+6.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Duke at California
ACC race: Duke losing helps your spot in the standings; California visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.
Final · Duke 45–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗
Root for California+2.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
Syracuse at SMU
ACC race: SMU losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Syracuse 18–31 SMUWent the other way ✗
Root for Syracuse+2.0 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Clemson at North Carolina
ACC race: Clemson losing helps your spot in the standings; North Carolina visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.
Final · Clemson 38–10 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for North Carolina+1.9 pp title-game odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Sam Houston at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware · CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida · ESPN2
New Mexico at San José State · FS1
West Virginia at BYU · ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia · ABC
Wisconsin at Michigan · FOX
Illinois at Purdue · BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
Kansas State at Baylor · ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Air Force at Navy · CBS
Army at UAB · ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State · CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
UTSA at Temple · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona · truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama · ABC
Texas at Florida · ESPN
Penn State at UCLA · CBS
Washington at Maryland · BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern · BTN
Oregon State at App State · ESPN+
Boise State at Notre Dame · NBC
Florida International at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma · SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska · FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston · ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming · CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M · SEC Network
Minnesota at Ohio State · NBC
Colorado at TCU · FOX
Kansas at UCF · ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis · ESPNU
Nevada at Fresno State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.