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#18Virginia Cavaliers

9–2 · 6–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
82%
ACC title game
20%
Win the ACC
23%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.8
How the week went: playoff odds 23% → 53% · title-game odds 82% → 100%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Virginia wins out: 24% to win the ACC, 28% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Virginia's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN
Virginia Tech at #18 Virginia

Your game. Beat Virginia Tech and your playoff odds are 28%; lose and they drop to <1%.

Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#21 SMU at California

You beat California — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · SMU 35–38 CaliforniaWish granted ✓
Root for California+14.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#12 Miami at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+5.9 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Duke

You beat Duke — their wins make your résumé stronger; Duke visits your schedule in week 15 — keep them ranked.

Final · Wake Forest 32–49 DukeWish granted ✓
Root for Duke+3.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
North Carolina at NC State

You already beat North Carolina; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · North Carolina 19–42 NC StateWish granted ✓
Root for NC State+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+1.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBS
#6 Oregon at Washington

Washington winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBS
Iowa at Nebraska

Nebraska winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Iowa 40–16 NebraskaWent the other way ✗
Root for Nebraska+1.3 pp playoff odds
58 more games that don't move your needle
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan · FOX
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Vanderbilt at Tennessee · ESPN
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
Alabama at Auburn · ABC
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.