Boise State Broncos
6–2 · 4–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
95%
MW title game
67%
Win the MW
28%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.2
How the week went: playoff odds 28% → 7% · title-game odds 95% → 72%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Boise State's pathYour game
…
… · FS1
Fresno State at Boise State
Your game. Beat Fresno State and your playoff odds are 30%; lose and they drop to 10%.
Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Texas State
Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas State+5.4 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
#25 Memphis at Rice
Rice winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
…
New Mexico at UNLV
Mountain West race: UNLV losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat New Mexico — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play UNLV in week 15.
Final · New Mexico 40–35 UNLVWish granted ✓
Root for New Mexico+3.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · FOX
#13 Texas Tech at Kansas State
Kansas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Texas Tech 43–20 Kansas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Kansas State+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Navy at North Texas
Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Navy+1.3 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.