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Duke Blue Devils

5–3 · 4–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
38%
ACC title game
19%
Win the ACC
10%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.4
How the week went: playoff odds 10% → 12% · title-game odds 38% → 56%.
Playoff odds by week
1234567891011

If Duke wins out: 45% to win the ACC, 33% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Duke's path
Your game
…
… · CBSSN
Duke at UConn

Your game. Beat UConn and your playoff odds are 14%; lose and they drop to 6%.

Final · Duke 34–37 UConnWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
California at #15 Louisville

ACC race: Louisville losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat California — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · California 29–26 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Root for California+10.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Wake Forest at #14 Virginia

ACC race: Virginia losing helps your spot in the standings; Wake Forest visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Wake Forest 16–9 VirginiaWish granted ✓
Root for Wake Forest+9.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ACC Network
Florida State at Clemson

ACC race: Florida State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Clemson — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Florida State 10–24 ClemsonWish granted ✓
Root for Clemson+4.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Marshall

Marshall winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · James Madison 35–23 MarshallWent the other way ✗
Root for Marshall+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · The CW Network
Stanford at North Carolina

ACC race: Stanford losing helps your spot in the standings; North Carolina visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Stanford 15–20 North CarolinaWish granted ✓
Root for North Carolina+2.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
SMU at Boston College

ACC race: SMU losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · SMU 45–13 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Root for Boston College+2.2 pp title-game odds
44 more games that don't move your needle
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.