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Duke Blue Devils

5–4 · 4–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
56%
ACC title game
24%
Win the ACC
12%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.5
How the week went: playoff odds 12% → 1% · title-game odds 56% → 11%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Duke wins out: 43% to win the ACC, 27% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Duke's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN2
#19 Virginia at Duke

Your game. Beat Virginia and your playoff odds are 17%; lose and they drop to <1%.

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
Clemson at #20 Louisville

ACC race: Louisville losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Clemson — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Clemson 20–19 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Root for Clemson+8.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ACC Network
#16 Georgia Tech at Boston College

ACC race: Georgia Tech losing helps your spot in the standings; Georgia Tech losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · Georgia Tech 36–34 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Root for Boston College+8.1 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
NC State at #15 Miami

ACC race: Miami losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat NC State — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for NC State+5.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
App State at James Madison

App State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for App State+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#24 South Florida at Navy

Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓
Root for Navy+2.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Boise State at San Diego State

San Diego State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Root for San Diego State+1.2 pp playoff odds
51 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.