#15Louisville Cardinals
7–1 · 4–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
33%
ACC title game
22%
Win the ACC
27%
Make the playoff
2%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.2
How the week went: playoff odds 27% → 9% · title-game odds 33% → 10%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Louisville's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN2
California at #15 Louisville
Your game. Beat California and your playoff odds are 29%; lose and they drop to 8%.
Final · California 29–26 LouisvilleWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ACC Network
SMU at Boston College
ACC race: SMU losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Boston College — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play SMU in week 13.
Final · SMU 45–13 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Root for Boston College+10.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Wake Forest at #14 Virginia
ACC race: Virginia losing helps your spot in the standings; Virginia losing softens the sting of your loss to them.
Final · Wake Forest 16–9 VirginiaWish granted ✓
Root for Wake Forest+9.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State
Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.7 pp playoff odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.