UNLV Rebels
7–2 · 3–2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
53%
MW title game
29%
Win the MW
5%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.8
How the week went: playoff odds 5% → 4% · title-game odds 53% → 56%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves UNLV's pathYour game
…
… · CBSSN
Utah State at UNLV
Your game. Beat Utah State and your playoff odds are 6%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.
Final · Utah State 26–29 UNLVWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
…
Colorado State at New Mexico
Mountain West race: New Mexico losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Colorado State — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · Colorado State 17–20 New MexicoWent the other way ✗
Root for Colorado State+12.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
#24 South Florida at Navy
Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓
Root for Navy+2.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
App State at James Madison
App State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for App State+1.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · FS1
Wyoming at Fresno State
Mountain West race: Wyoming losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat Wyoming; them losing again keeps them behind you.
Final · Wyoming 3–24 Fresno StateWish granted ✓
Root for Fresno State+2.0 pp title-game odds
53 more games that don't move your needle
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.