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UNLV Rebels

8–2 · 4–2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
56%
MW title game
33%
Win the MW
4%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.8
How the week went: playoff odds 4% → 6% · title-game odds 56% → 63%.
Playoff odds by week
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If UNLV wins out: 53% to win the MW, 7% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves UNLV's path
Your game
…
… · FS1
Hawai'i at UNLV

Your game. Beat Hawai'i and your playoff odds are 5%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.

Final · Hawai'i 10–38 UNLVWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · FS1
Colorado State at Boise State

Mountain West race: Boise State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Colorado State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Boise State in week 15.

Final · Colorado State 21–49 Boise StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Colorado State+11.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBSSN
Utah State at Fresno State

Mountain West race: Utah State losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat Utah State; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Utah State 28–17 Fresno StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Fresno State+9.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
San José State at San Diego State

Mountain West race: San Diego State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · San José State 3–25 San Diego StateWent the other way ✗
Root for San José State+8.2 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · NBC
Syracuse at #9 Notre Dame

Notre Dame winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Syracuse 7–70 Notre DameWish granted ✓
Root for Notre Dame+2.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
Washington State at James Madison

Washington State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Washington State 20–24 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington State+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
New Mexico at Air Force

Mountain West race: New Mexico losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Air Force — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · New Mexico 20–3 Air ForceWent the other way ✗
Root for Air Force+3.0 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
North Texas at Rice

Rice winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · North Texas 56–24 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPNU
#24 Tulane at Temple

Temple winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Tulane 37–13 TempleWent the other way ✗
Root for Temple+1.3 pp playoff odds
51 more games that don't move your needle
Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU
Massachusetts at Ohio · CBSSN
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois · ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo · ESPN2
Central Michigan at Kent State · ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN
Florida State at NC State · ESPN
Missouri at Oklahoma · ABC
Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX
Louisville at SMU · ESPN2
Miami at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State · FS1
Tulsa at Army · CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network
Baylor at Arizona · TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Ball State at Toledo · ESPN+
Marshall at App State · ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+
South Florida at UAB · ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas · ABC
Kentucky at Vanderbilt · ESPN
USC at Oregon · CBS
Michigan State at Iowa · FS1
Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+
Michigan at Maryland · BTN
TCU at Houston · FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+
Kansas State at Utah · ESPN2
Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State · NBC
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Tennessee at Florida · ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN
California at Stanford · ACC Network
Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network
BYU at Cincinnati · FOX
Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2
Washington at UCLA · NBC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.