Navy Midshipmen
3–0 · 2–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
25%
American title game
11%
Win the American
3%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.4
How the week went: playoff odds 3% → 2% · title-game odds 25% → 23%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Navy's pathYour game
…
… · CBSSN
Rice at Navy
Your game. Beat Rice and your playoff odds are 4%; lose and they drop to <1%.
Final · Rice 13–21 NavyWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
Memphis at Florida Atlantic
American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida Atlantic visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.
Final · Memphis 55–26 Florida AtlanticWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida Atlantic+3.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Tulane at Tulsa
American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Tulsa — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · Tulane 31–14 TulsaWent the other way ✗
Root for Tulsa+2.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
South Alabama at North Texas
American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play North Texas in week 10.
Final · South Alabama 22–36 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for South Alabama+1.9 pp title-game odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas · ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M · ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Indiana at Iowa · Peacock
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.