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#4Ole Miss Rebels

5–0 · 3–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
41%
SEC title game
22%
Win the SEC
82%
Make the playoff
38%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.1
How the week went: playoff odds 82% → 86% · title-game odds 41% → 46%.
Playoff odds by week
123456

If Ole Miss wins out: 56% to win the SEC, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Ole Miss's path
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
#9 Texas at Florida

SEC race: Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Texas 21–29 FloridaWish granted ✓
Root for Florida+9.9 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
Kentucky at #12 Georgia

SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Kentucky — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Georgia in week 8.

Final · Kentucky 14–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Kentucky+8.8 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#16 Vanderbilt at #10 Alabama

SEC race: Alabama losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Vanderbilt 14–30 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Root for Vanderbilt+7.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBS
#7 Penn State at UCLA

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and UCLA winning protects it.

Final · Penn State 37–42 UCLAWish granted ✓
Root for UCLA+5.1 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · NBC
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame

Boise State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Boise State 7–28 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Root for Boise State+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M

Mississippi State visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Mississippi State 9–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Miami at #18 Florida State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Florida State winning protects it.

Final · Miami 28–22 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida State+3.2 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · FS1
Michigan State at Nebraska

Michigan State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Michigan State 27–38 NebraskaWent the other way ✗
Root for Michigan State+1.3 pp playoff odds
42 more games that don't move your needle
Sam Houston at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware · CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida · ESPN2
New Mexico at San José State · FS1
West Virginia at BYU · ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wisconsin at Michigan · FOX
Illinois at Purdue · BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina · ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor · ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Air Force at Navy · CBS
Army at UAB · ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State · CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
UTSA at Temple · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona · truTV
Washington at Maryland · BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern · BTN
Oregon State at App State · ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville · ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU · ACC Network
Florida International at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma · SEC Network
Texas State at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston · ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming · CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice · ESPN+
Minnesota at Ohio State · NBC
Colorado at TCU · FOX
Kansas at UCF · ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis · ESPNU
Duke at California · ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.