Old Dominion Monarchs

0–0 · 0–0 SUN BELT

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

46%

Sun Belt title game

20%

Win the Sun Belt

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 11.4

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-6 job: beat App State.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6

If Old Dominion wins out: 51% to win the Sun Belt, 46% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Old Dominion's path

Your game

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Old Dominion at App State

Your game. Beat App State and your playoff odds are 7%; lose and they drop to 2%.

Old Dominion 76%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 10

James Madison at Georgia Southern

Sun Belt race: James Madison losing helps your spot in the standings; Georgia Southern visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.

James Madison 84%

TBD

TUE OCT 6

Southern Miss at Troy

Sun Belt race: Troy losing helps your spot in the standings; Southern Miss visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Troy 70%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Louisiana at Louisiana Tech

Sun Belt race: Louisiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Louisiana Tech visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.

Louisiana Tech 69%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Coastal Carolina at Marshall

Sun Belt race: Marshall losing helps your spot in the standings; Coastal Carolina visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Marshall 82%

51 more games that don't move your needle

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

New Mexico State at Florida International

South Florida at UTSA

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Sam Houston at Liberty

Missouri State at Western Kentucky

Florida State at Louisville

Washington State at Utah State

Georgia at Alabama

Tennessee at Arkansas

South Carolina at Florida

LSU at Kentucky

Texas A&M at Missouri

Texas at Oklahoma

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Hawai'i at Arizona State

Arizona at West Virginia

UCF at Oklahoma State

Houston at Kansas State

Iowa State at BYU

Kansas at Utah

Duke at Georgia Tech

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Syracuse at Virginia

Virginia Tech at California

Wake Forest at NC State

Illinois at Michigan State

Indiana at Nebraska

Ball State at Northwestern

Maryland at Ohio State

UCLA at Oregon

USC at Penn State

Minnesota at Purdue

Iowa at Washington

Boise State at Fresno State

San Diego State at Oregon State

UConn at Temple

Tulane at Army

Charlotte at North Texas

Rice at East Carolina

UAB at Memphis

Tulsa at Navy

Air Force at Northern Illinois

Nevada at UTEP

Wyoming at San José State

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Buffalo at Toledo

Central Michigan at Ohio

Kent State at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Massachusetts

Stanford at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.