UTSA Roadrunners
0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Way too early
WEEK 6 · 2026
31%
American title game
16%
Win the American
7%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.2
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-6 job: beat South Florida.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves UTSA's pathYour game
TBD
THU OCT 8
South Florida at UTSA
Your game. Beat South Florida and your playoff odds are 12%; lose and they drop to 3%.
UTSA 52%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 10
James Madison at Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 84%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
Charlotte at North Texas
American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play North Texas in week 11.
North Texas 95%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
Rice at East Carolina
American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings.
East Carolina 92%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
Tulsa at Navy
American Athletic race: Navy losing helps your spot in the standings; Tulsa visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Navy 89%
51 more games that don't move your needle
Southern Miss at Troy
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State
New Mexico State at Florida International
South Alabama at Arkansas State
Sam Houston at Liberty
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Florida State at Louisville
Washington State at Utah State
Georgia at Alabama
Tennessee at Arkansas
South Carolina at Florida
LSU at Kentucky
Texas A&M at Missouri
Texas at Oklahoma
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Hawai'i at Arizona State
Arizona at West Virginia
UCF at Oklahoma State
Houston at Kansas State
Iowa State at BYU
Kansas at Utah
Duke at Georgia Tech
North Carolina at Pittsburgh
Syracuse at Virginia
Virginia Tech at California
Wake Forest at NC State
Illinois at Michigan State
Indiana at Nebraska
Ball State at Northwestern
Maryland at Ohio State
UCLA at Oregon
USC at Penn State
Minnesota at Purdue
Iowa at Washington
Boise State at Fresno State
San Diego State at Oregon State
UConn at Temple
Tulane at Army
UAB at Memphis
Air Force at Northern Illinois
Nevada at UTEP
Wyoming at San José State
Eastern Michigan at Akron
Buffalo at Toledo
Central Michigan at Ohio
Kent State at Western Michigan
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts
Old Dominion at App State
Coastal Carolina at Marshall
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech
Stanford at Notre Dame
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.