North Dakota State Bison

5–0 · 2–0 MOUNTAIN WEST

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WEEK 7 · 2026

The Week 7 job

Beat Nevada and avoid turning a likely win into a season problem.

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CBSSN

MW title-game chanceNow73%Win78%Loss47%

Nevada

Nevada 17%North Dakota State 83%

North Dakota State

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CBSSN

Priority 1

UNLV

at

Root for

Air Force

Root for Air Force5.4-point title-game boost

UNLV losing would help North Dakota State in the Mountain West standings; North Dakota State beat Air Force, so another Air Force win would strengthen North Dakota State's résumé.

76% if Air Force wins70% with the other result5.4-point differenceNorth Dakota State MW title-game chance

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FS1

Priority 2

New Mexico

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Root for

Hawai'i

Root for Hawai'i5.3-point title-game boost

New Mexico losing would help North Dakota State in the Mountain West standings; North Dakota State plays Hawai'i in week 11, so a win would make a future opponent look stronger.

77% if Hawai'i wins72% with the other result5.3-point differenceNorth Dakota State MW title-game chance

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ESPNU

Priority 3

Root for

Georgia State

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James Madison

Root for Georgia State2.2-point playoff boost

Georgia State winning would remove some at-large competition for North Dakota State.

9% if Georgia State wins6% with the other result2.2-point differenceNorth Dakota State playoff chance

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MW+

Priority 4

San José State

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Root for

UTEP

Root for UTEP2.9-point title-game boost

San José State losing would help North Dakota State in the Mountain West standings; North Dakota State plays UTEP in week 9, so a win would make a future opponent look stronger.

76% if UTEP wins73% with the other result2.9-point differenceNorth Dakota State MW title-game chance

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ESPN+

Priority 5

Kent State

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Root for

South Florida

Root for South Florida1.6-point playoff boost

South Florida winning would remove some at-large competition for North Dakota State.

6% if South Florida wins5% with the other result1.6-point differenceNorth Dakota State playoff chance

53 more games that don't move your needle

Delaware at Middle Tennessee · CBSSN

Florida International at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Kennesaw State at Missouri State · CBSSN

Western Kentucky at Sam Houston · ESPN2

East Carolina at UAB · ESPN

Georgia Southern at Old Dominion · ESPN2

Colorado State at Texas State · CBSSN

Memphis at Tulane · ESPN

Washington at Purdue · FOX

App State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Utah at Colorado

Wake Forest at California

Penn State at Michigan

Nebraska at Oregon

Wisconsin at UCLA

Mississippi State at LSU

Florida at Texas

Cincinnati at West Virginia · TNT

Kansas at Kansas State · FS1

Pittsburgh at Boston College · ESPN2

Virginia at SMU · The CW Network

Ohio State at Indiana · FOX

Northwestern at Michigan State · Peacock

Florida Atlantic at Army · CBSSN

Ball State at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Rutgers at Maryland · BTN

Charlotte at Temple · ESPN+

Massachusetts at Buffalo · ESPN+

Western Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Auburn at Georgia

Missouri at Ole Miss

Alabama at Tennessee

Arizona State at Texas Tech · FOX

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech · ACC Network

North Carolina at Duke · ESPN2

Northern Illinois at Wyoming · The CW Network

Toledo at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

Akron at Miami (OH) · ESPN+

Tulsa at Rice · ESPN+

Troy at Louisiana · ESPN+

Washington State at Oregon State · USA Network

Arkansas at Vanderbilt · ESPN2

TCU at Baylor · FS1

Florida State at Miami · ESPN

Arkansas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Kentucky at Oklahoma · SEC Network

Notre Dame at BYU · ABC

Oklahoma State at Houston · FOX

Louisville at Syracuse · ACC Network

Navy at UTSA · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Ohio at Sacramento State · ESPN+

Fresno State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.