🏈 Fan Watch

#8Oklahoma Sooners

9–2 · 5–2 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Oklahoma beat LSU. Playoff odds moved from 65% to 57%.

The model sees the SEC title as an extreme long shot, so the likelier playoff path is an at-large bid.

Your game

LSU at Oklahoma
…
…
ABC
Final
LSU
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWish granted ✓
Oklahoma

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oklahoma wanted
…
…
ABC
Impact 1
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.6-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Auburn won64% with the other result5.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 2
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.8-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Mississippi State won65% with the other result4.8-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 3
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.3-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Tennessee won62% with the other result4.3-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
CBS
Impact 4
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection68% if Washington won64% with the other result3.9-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
FOX
Impact 5
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

Michigan lost again, helping keep them behind Oklahoma.

Entering-week projection66% if Ohio State won62% with the other result3.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 6
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection68% if Virginia Tech won65% with the other result3-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
NBC
Impact 7
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final · Indiana 56–3 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.7-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection8% if Purdue won5% with the other result3.7-point differenceOklahoma first-round bye chance
…
…
ESPN2
Impact 8
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if UCF won65% with the other result2-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 9
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Kansas won65% with the other result1.9-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 10
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Pittsburgh won65% with the other result1.8-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 11
Rooted for
Texas A&M
at
Texas
Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Texas A&M won65% with the other result1.7-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 12
Texas Tech
at
Rooted for
West Virginia
Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if West Virginia won4% with the other result3-point differenceOklahoma first-round bye chance
54 other games had little impact
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Oklahoma, then Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Washington, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Purdue, UCF, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, West Virginia.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.