Raleek Brown took all 17 of the Texas running back carries at Tennessee, for 67 yards and touchdowns of 9 and 4 yards, and Hollywood Smothers never got one. Texas still won 20-17 in Knoxville.
Steve Sarkisian cleared that up during the bye. Smothers was being managed around a precautionary ankle injury, and the coach said Smothers "will be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU", with Cam Coleman's bruised tailbone from a diving catch at Tennessee dismissed as nothing serious. So the zero-carry game was health, not a demotion. Saturday at the Cotton Bowl is where that stops being an explanation and becomes a plan. If Smothers and Brown split the work and Texas moves the ball on the ground, the preseason idea is alive.
There's a wrinkle worth savoring. Smothers originally signed with Oklahoma in the 2023 class and redshirted there, getting 11 carries for 42 yards before leaving for NC State and eventually Texas. His first meaningful snaps in two weeks come against the program that recruited him first.
Why the run game matters more than usual this week
Because the passing game hasn't bailed Texas out. Arch Manning threw for 201 yards on 14-of-19 at Tennessee with an interception and no touchdown pass, and took six sacks. Six sacks and no touchdown pass is why nobody expects Texas to throw it around the Cotton Bowl. A functioning two-back rotation is how an offense like this one controls a rivalry game instead of surviving it.
The other unfinished item is discipline. Texas committed 11 penalties for 115 yards at Tennessee, seven in the first half, and Sarkisian said afterward, "We have to fix it. That can't continue as we move forward." The bye produced no evidence either way. A Red River crowd split down the 50 is the next real look at it.
And the defense has earned the benefit of the doubt. Texas held Tennessee to 221 total yards, 70 rushing and 151 passing, and Jelani McDonald batted down Faizon Brandon's Hail Mary in the end zone on the final play after Tennessee had cut it to three with 1:22 left.
Texas at Oklahoma, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The model gives Texas a 75% chance at the Cotton Bowl. The two branches diverge sharply on the SEC side. Win and Texas' title-game odds sit at 53%, lose and they fall to 23%, with the first-round bye splitting 56% against 35% and the projected seed moving from 4.2 to 5.4. Playoff odds are more forgiving, 94% with a win, 85% with a loss. The conference path is what's actually on the table Saturday. Texas beat Ohio State in Week 2 by grinding out touchdown drives of 15 plays for 91 yards, 13 for 72 and 12 for 73, with Smothers finishing two of them from a yard out. That is the version of this offense that wins a rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl.
Keep the schedule in view too. Texas opened with three home games including Ohio State, then went to Tennessee, and after Oklahoma comes Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State at home before road trips to Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M in three of the final four. A backfield that holds up for that stretch is worth more than one good Saturday.
South Carolina at Florida: root for Florida
12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network. Florida wins this 64% of the time, and the Gators winning is worth about 1.9 percentage points on Texas' SEC title-game odds. Roughly 46% with a Florida win versus 45% with a South Carolina win. Straight standings math applies. South Carolina is a conference competitor, and a loss there is one fewer team in the race Texas has to clear.
Georgia at Alabama: root for Georgia
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC. Georgia is the preferred side but only a 47% proposition in Tuscaloosa. Same mechanism, same size. About 1.9 points of title-game odds, 47% if Georgia wins against 45% if Alabama does. Alabama is the team Texas would rather see carrying a conference loss. Enjoy it; don't plan around it.
Both are small. Neither changes your Saturday. Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.