Solomon Baggett carried 12 times for 51 yards and ran in the touchdown at Louisiana, while Kenyon Clay sat out a second straight game with an ankle injury. Then Tony Sterner kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired, his third make of the night, after a 25-yarder tied it with 5:38 left, and the Red Wolves lost 23-20 in their Sun Belt opener. Louisiana moved to 4-1 and 1-0; Arkansas State fell to 2-3 and 0-1 in the league.
Arkansas State can play with the better half of the division, and this one still came down to the final kick, with its most decorated offensive player watching from the sideline.
What Louisiana actually exposed
Trey Owens was the good news. He went 20 of 31 for 206 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, and ran the 7-play, 75-yard drive, including 29- and 14-yard throws to Chauncy Cobb, that produced the lead. Garrett Altman came to Jonesboro from two years coaching Vanderbilt quarterbacks, where Vanderbilt led the FBS in points per play in 2025 and Diego Pavia put up a school-record 4,018 total yards and 36 touchdowns; the quarterback-centered version of that offense only works if the quarterback stays upright and clean. Owens has done the clean part.
The upright part is the problem, and so is the defense. Louisiana outgained the Red Wolves 435-293 and held the ball for 34:08, and Arkansas State did not record a sack all night, finishing with three tackles for loss. Joe Drew's 10 tackles, his third straight double-digit game, were the unit's steadiest work.
The one thing that can actually change by Thursday
Clay can. The backfield has been a committee since he left the Memphis opener early after two carries for five yards with an apparent knee injury, with the carries scattered among Baggett, James Lee, Ezell Jolly, Timothy Carter and Owens himself. Baggett has been good, he scored the go-ahead touchdown Saturday, but Clay was one of seven Arkansas State players named preseason All-Sun Belt first team, and he sat out at Louisiana. This week against South Alabama is his next chance to play.
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama, Thursday, 6:30 p.m. CT, ESPN2
The model gives Arkansas State a 57% chance at home. The stakes are lopsided in the way second conference games often are. A win puts the Red Wolves' Sun Belt title-game odds near 6.9%, a loss drops them to roughly 0.6%. Those are two different versions of the rest of October, not a number that drifts from one to the other.
Why it bites so hard. South Alabama already won its conference opener and sits second in the West at 3-2, 1-0, above Arkansas State, with Louisiana on top at 1-0. Lose Thursday and Arkansas State is 0-2 in the division with the Jaguars two conference games clear. Win and this is a 1-1 start with Southern Miss and Georgia State next, both near coin flips.
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech: root for Louisiana Tech
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+. Louisiana Tech is the home team and about a 53% pick. This one is simple standings math rather than reputation. Louisiana already owns the head-to-head win over Arkansas State, so the only way to pull the Cajuns back toward the field is for somebody else to beat them. A Louisiana Tech win is worth about 2.9 percentage points to Arkansas State's title-game odds. Small in absolute terms, but it is the largest outside result on the board, and the two branches split cleanly. Tech wins and the Red Wolves sit around 5.5%, Louisiana wins and it is closer to 2.6%.
None of that helps if Arkansas State loses Thursday. A second conference loss at home would leave the Red Wolves chasing both teams ahead of them in the West, and no result somewhere else closes that gap for them.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.