South Florida's starting quarterback, Michael Van Buren Jr., finished 7-of-11 for 52 passing yards on Saturday, was sacked six times and had two fumbles that set up short fields for Bowling Green. The Bulls won anyway, 14-6 on the road, and they are 4-0 for the first time since 2018. That record is real. So is the fact that it was built last week on 214 yards and a fourth-quarter rescue.
Brian Hartline declined to hang the sack total on the injuries. He also said Van Buren "does a great job taking care of the football," which is a generous read of a two-fumble night and a fair signal that the staff is not about to change quarterbacks.
None of this should erase what the week before looked like. Against Delaware State, Van Buren completed 23 of 32 for 300 yards and a touchdown and put the ball on the ground zero times. Two games, two entirely different quarterbacks. Sorting out which one Temple sees is the whole point of Saturday.
USF trailed 6-0 into the fourth quarter and scored on its only two productive possessions of the night. Luke Kromenhoek's 2-yard touchdown run after a fourth-down defensive stop, then D.J. Crowther's 1-yard run with 5:34 left. No field goals at all. A long way from the opener against FIU, when Nico Gramatica made all four of his attempts from 37, 53, 30 and 29 yards and the kicking game did the scoring. Bowling Green still had a chance at the end, reaching the USF 30 before a fourth-and-16 throw to Winn Sharp fell two yards short.
The defense is the reason that margin held up. Josh Aldridge's 4-2-5 is built to disguise looks and generate sacks, tackles for loss, takeaways and pass breakups, and the pattern this season has been a unit that settles in and clamps down. Against Delaware State it surrendered two long touchdown passes and a 50-yard run in the first half, then allowed 65 total yards and no points after halftime.
Remember why the offense is starting over at all. USF climbed from 1-11 in 2022 to 7-6 and a Boca Raton Bowl win in 2023 and 9-4 in 2025. Then handed the whole thing to a new staff. Byrum Brown, who threw for 3,158 yards, ran for 1,008 and accounted for 42 touchdowns in 2025, followed Alex Golesh to Auburn. Hartline's answer was volume. Forty-one January transfers, 21 on offense and 18 on defense, a class 247Sports rated first in the American and best in the Group of 6. Four games in, the defensive half of that rebuild looks further along than the offensive half.
Saturday: Temple at Raymond James, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
South Florida is 4-0 and 1-0 in the American, alone at the top of the standings; Temple is 1-3, 0-1 and has lost three straight. This is USF's conference home opener, and the model gives the Bulls an 89.9% chance to win it.
The stakes are not subtle. Win and USF's conference title game odds sit at 64%, with playoff odds at 11.5%. Lose and those fall to 37% and 3.7% in the same simulation. A team with a 1.7 projected conference loss total cannot spend one here.
Temple is worth more respect than 1-3 suggests, particularly if USF's ball-security problem travels. K.C. Keeler's 2025 Owls committed just four turnovers all season while taking the ball away 15 times. Aldridge's havoc defense would love to make this a turnover game; Temple is the opponent least likely to volunteer for one.
How completely this program has turned over shows up in one game. The last meeting was November 11, 2023 in Tampa, a 27-23 USF win in which Brown threw for 316 yards and E.J. Warner threw three interceptions, including a Tramel Logan pick-six. Almost none of that is still here. Hartline's stated standard for the stretch ahead is simpler. "Find a way to go, one and zero every single week."
Elsewhere
North Texas at Tulsa: root for Tulsa
Thursday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN. Tulsa wins about 12% of the time, but it is the best outside result on the board. A North Texas loss directly damages a conference rival's standing, and USF's title-game odds land 3.8 points higher with it. Low odds, real payoff. Enjoy it if it happens rather than counting on it.
UTSA at Rice: root for Rice
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+. Rice is an 18% shot. Same mechanism, smaller size. Knocking UTSA down is worth 2.2 points of title-game odds, and USF plays at UTSA next week, so a bruised host would not hurt either.
Utah State at Boise State: root for Utah State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN. Same window as USF's game, so this is a phone check, not a viewing plan. Utah State wins roughly 11% of the time. A No. 22 Boise State loss thins the field of Group of 5 playoff claimants, worth 2.2 points on USF's playoff number.
Liberty at Delaware: root for Delaware
Friday, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN. Delaware at 15%, worth 1.7 points of playoff odds through the same national competition. Nice if it lands, not a reason to rearrange your Friday.
Full numbers and every game in the Week 5 interactive guide. How the projections are built is covered in the methodology.