David McComb went 19-of-29 for 312 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions, added a 10-yard touchdown run, and then, in the fourth quarter, injured his left knee and did not return. Miami beat UConn 24-21 anyway. UConn scored the game's first 14 points before Miami answered with 21 straight, capped by a Scoop Smith touchdown catch; the Huskies tied it 21-21 on Cyncir Bowers' 1-yard run before failing to convert on their final possession.
McComb had Miami scoring in the second, third and fourth quarters after the 14-0 hole. Gus Ragland's rebuilt offense finally looked like the thing it was designed to be, and then its quarterback left the field.
Behind him, the room is thin. Thomas Gotkowski is the only returning Miami quarterback with meaningful game experience, having thrown for 575 yards with four touchdowns and one interception across five 2025 appearances. Caleb Heavner, the Fort Hays State transfer, closed out the win by going 3-of-3. That is the entire body of evidence.
Bowling Green at Miami, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+
This is the MAC opener for both teams at Yager Stadium, and the model gives Miami a 74% chance to win. ESPN's matchup predictor is friendlier still, putting Miami at 87.4% with the RedHawks favored by roughly two touchdowns.
A win nudges Miami's title-game odds to roughly 15%; a loss drops them to about 3.6%. That is why a game against a heavy underdog matters this much. Miami has been to the MAC Championship Game three years running, and that streak does not survive many home losses to teams it is favored to beat by 14.
Recent history argues against treating it as a formality. The last two documented meetings split. Bowling Green won 17-13 at home in 2022 and Miami won 27-0 at Yager in 2023.
Here is what to watch, in order of how much it should move your pulse.
Who takes the first snap. If it's Heavner, the question becomes whether Ragland trims the passing game back toward last year's shape. Miami averaged 23.5 points and 187.3 passing yards per game in 2025 while completing under 50% of its throws and converting barely a third of its third downs. That is the baseline this offense was built to beat, with McComb, Rodney Nelson (1,802 rushing yards at Monmouth in 2025) and receivers Damarion Witten and Devin Hyatt all brought in to do it. Nelson's legs matter more than ever if the passing game gets simplified.
Bill Brechin's defense. This is the unit that can make a quarterback problem survivable. Miami finished top three in the MAC defensively in each of Brechin's first four seasons as coordinator, with 133 sacks and 83 takeaways from 2022 through 2025. After the 14-0 hole against UConn, the RedHawks allowed one more touchdown over three quarters, CJ Young picked off a pass, and Martin said the group "grew up a lot today." It is encouragement, not proof.
The kicker. Kellan McLaughlin missed from 44 and 40 against UConn before true freshman Brady Stidham, who had not practiced with the No. 1 unit all season, made a 33-yarder with 1:58 left to win it. If a backup quarterback is grinding out field-position football, whoever Miami sends out for the next 40-yarder matters.
The rest of the MAC board
Two other conference games nudge Miami's title-game math. Neither is worth rearranging a Saturday around, but both are on while Miami warms up.
Western Michigan at Buffalo: root for Buffalo
1 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Buffalo wins about 34% of the time. Western Michigan is the team MAC coaches picked first in the preseason and the most direct threat to Miami's path to Detroit, so every conference loss the Broncos take thins the field ahead of the RedHawks. A Buffalo win leaves Miami's title-game odds near 14.4%; a Western Michigan win leaves them near 10.8%, a swing of about 3.6 percentage points.
Toledo at Ball State: root for Ball State
2 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Ball State wins about 6% of the time, so file this one under pleasant surprise rather than plan. Toledo is another contender whose conference record competes with Miami's for a championship-game spot, so a Ball State upset would leave Miami around 14.5% rather than roughly 11.9%. Those 2.6 percentage points are the rare kind Miami collects without playing a snap.
Full numbers and the interactive breakdown are at the Week 5 guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.