Nick Keller's 57-yard field-goal attempt was blocked with 15 seconds left, Devin Cook fell on the ball, and Wake Forest walked out of Louisville with a 30-27 win. Connor Calvert's 32-yard go-ahead kick with 6:20 left had already put Louisville in chase mode, and Keller had missed from 42 at the 2:29 mark before the last-second block ended it. Louisville is 2-2, 1-1 in the ACC, and the loss is the season's first real evidence against the idea that this team plays in Charlotte in December.
The frustrating part is that Louisville mostly beat itself. There were seven penalties for 90 yards, five of them 15-yard flags, a week after nine against Ole Miss. And the loss came in a game WDRB had spent the week calling a trap that the Cardinals fell into because of penalties and defensive lapses. One week does not make that a habit. It does make it the thing to watch Saturday.
Kienholz's biggest day, the line's worst, and another long touchdown allowed
Lincoln Kienholz's fourth start was his busiest. He went 27 of 36 for 324 yards with a 61-yard touchdown to Jaleel Skinner, plus two rushing scores. It was also his messiest. His first interception of the season, and 13 carries that netted minus-19 yards because he took four sacks. That is the whole Kienholz question in one box score.
Those four sacks also ended a two-game stretch in which the line had allowed none, and one of them, an 11-yard loss on third down, pushed Louisville out of field-goal range on its next-to-last possession. The run game fell to 75 yards on 38 carries after 265 yards at 7.2 a carry against SMU.
The passing game held up. Tre Richardson (5 for 85), Lawayne McCoy (6 for 75), TreyShun Hurry (8 for 71) and Skinner (4 for 82 and the touchdown) each caught multiple balls without anyone reaching 100 yards. Louisville scored 27 points in a loss because that group can move the ball without a single star target, which is exactly what you want to believe when crowd noise starts eating your protection calls.
The defense is the sore spot. Louisville played without two starting defensive backs, and its pass defense again allowed a long touchdown catch, Hernandez's 77-yarder.
Louisville at NC State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Louisville is still the better team and the numbers say so. Fan Watch's model gives the Cardinals a 60% chance in Raleigh, and ESPN's FPI is higher at 67.2%, with Louisville 31st after dropping eight spots for the Wake Forest loss and NC State 58th and projected to finish 6-6. Louisville leads the all-time series 9-4 and has won the last two meetings, including a 13-10 grind at Carter-Finley in 2023.
This is Louisville's first true road game of 2026, which means the penalties and the busted coverages get tested with a crowd against them for the first time. A clean first quarter in Raleigh would answer a lot.
The stakes are large for a game Louisville is favored to win. Win in Raleigh and the Cardinals' ACC title-game odds sit near 23.7%, with playoff odds around 7.6%. Lose and those fall to roughly 4.9% and 1.9%. A second straight loss to a team it should beat would essentially close the championship conversation in September.
Virginia at Florida State: root for Florida State
Same kickoff window, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Virginia is the direct threat here. It's an ACC team Louisville needs to keep behind it in the standings, and Florida State is about a 40% pick at home. A Florida State win is worth about 6.1 percentage points to Louisville's title-game odds, roughly 19.9% versus 13.8% the other way. Louisville hosts Florida State next week, which is a separate problem for a separate Saturday.
Boston College at SMU: root for Boston College
Boston College is a long shot here.
Noon ET on The CW. Boston College is a heavy road underdog at No. 21 SMU, a 10% proposition. If it happens, Louisville's title-game odds land near 19.6% instead of 15.9%. About 3.8 points.
Full numbers and matchup detail live in the interactive guide; the model is explained in the methodology.