North Texas lost to Texas State 49-35 in Week 3.
Torrance Burgess Jr. carried 25 times for 214 yards Saturday, and Texas State's offense as a whole ran for 337 yards at 6.9 per carry, the first 200-yard rusher North Texas has allowed since 2022. The game was tied 28-28 at halftime after Tayven Jackson found Corri Milliner on fourth-and-3 from the Texas State 5 with 54 seconds left in the second quarter; Texas State then outscored North Texas 21-7 after the break and sealed a 49-35 win on Davian Jackson's 57-yard touchdown run with 3:07 to go. North Texas is 1-2, and Neal Brown said afterward that the defense was "nonexistent" and that his staff "didn't coach well enough."
What makes that so jarring is the week before it. Against UNLV, this same defense held the Rebels to 98 rushing yards and sacked the quarterback four times, with David Onuoha getting 1.5 of them, in a 44-6 win Brown described as his defensive line dominating UNLV's. Matt Powledge's front is built around a four-man look roughly 65 to 70 percent of the time, an odd front the rest, and for one Saturday it worked exactly as designed. Then Burgess bounced outside all night.
Houston Christian visits Denton at 6:30 p.m. Central Saturday on ESPN+, and the model gives North Texas a 99.5% chance to win. The result is not the interesting part. What is interesting is whether the front that vanished at Texas State shows up, and whether Brown's run game does too.
The trenches, both directions
Houston Christian lost 31-3 at Rice on September 5, and Rice did it the least subtle way possible, 70 carries for 465 yards at 6.6 a clip, with a 39:32 edge in possession. That is the front North Texas gets to run at. Brown's offense ran for 152 yards at Indiana and 183 against UNLV, then fell to 82 at Texas State while Jackson threw 57 times. Jahiem White had 185 rushing yards across the first two games and no version of that at Texas State. If the run-first offense Brown imported linemen and backs to build is real, this is the week it should look obvious on the scoreboard and in the carry count, not just the yardage.
The defensive half matters more. Houston Christian will not test a four-man front the way Tulsa or Navy will, and a lopsided score by itself will not prove the run fits are fixed. But tackling in space is tackling in space, and Burgess got loose on the edge repeatedly. Clean fits and finished tackles on outside runs would at least suggest the Week 3 film was a bad night rather than a structural hole opening in front of conference play.
Two smaller things to watch. Jackson's job is not in question, he set a career high with 483 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he was excellent in the UNLV win before that, going 15 of 26 for 233 yards and two scores with no interceptions while adding a rushing touchdown. But he lost a fumble and threw a pick at Texas State, and a turnover-free afternoon against an overmatched opponent is worth having. And remember why this defense swings so far week to week. North Texas opened the season with 70 newcomers and no returning 2025 starters, a starting lineup full of players making their first appearance in the uniform. Consistency is the thing a rebuilt roster earns last. Conference play starts at Tulsa next week.
Elsewhere, four games with modest stakes
South Florida at Bowling Green: root for Bowling Green
Bowling Green wins about 7% of the time, kicking off at 4 p.m. Central on ESPN+. It's a strength signal on a conference rival. If USF stumbles at Bowling Green, North Texas's title-game odds land near 58%, versus about 54% if USF wins. Worth 4.3 points, and very unlikely.
James Madison at Old Dominion: root for Old Dominion
Old Dominion at 10%, 5 p.m. Central on ESPN+. Pure national math. James Madison is competing with North Texas for the same at-large playoff conversation, so an ODU upset puts the Mean Green near 11% for the playoff instead of roughly 9%. A 2.2-point swing.
Notre Dame at Purdue: root for Notre Dame
The easy one. Notre Dame is a 98% favorite at 1 p.m. Central on Peacock. Same mechanism as above, a Notre Dame loss would add another plausible national contender to the pile, so the Irish winning keeps North Texas's playoff number around 9.1% rather than 7.1%. Worth 2.1 points and you will barely notice it happen.
Army at Temple: root for Temple
This result carries a 2.9 percentage-point impact on North Texas's conference-title-game probability.
The only one with a direct standings effect, Friday afternoon at 3 p.m. Central on ESPN. Army is an American opponent North Texas has to climb over in the league race, and a Temple win puts a conference loss on Army's ledger. That branch has North Texas's title-game chance near 56%; an Army win leaves it around 53%. Temple wins about 35% of the time, the best odds on the board this week for a helpful outside result.
None of that adds up to much. The afternoon that matters is the one in Denton, and specifically the two or three drives where Houston Christian tries to run.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the model is explained in the methodology.