Kaleb Beasley intercepted Kevin Jennings twice and Brycen Scott punched the ball out as Jennings reached for the end zone with 2:43 left, the fumble rolling through for a touchback, and that is how Louisville beat SMU 41-31 at home. The same Louisville defense allowed 479 yards, 26 first downs and 257 rushing yards at 5.7 a carry, and stopped SMU twice on fourth-and-short. SMU ran 80 plays to Louisville's 60, held the ball longer, and turned it over three times to Louisville's zero. Jeff Brohm's summary afterward was honest enough. "I'd love for everything to look pretty and smooth, but that's not football at this level when you're facing good opponents. You just have to find a way to do it."
It was the first win over SMU in program history, and it put Louisville 1-0 in the ACC against the team the league's media picked second. That is real conference position, not a box to check.
Wake Forest at noon, and a quarterback who does not need 80 plays
ESPN's FPI has Louisville 23rd and Wake Forest 54th in a game that closes Louisville's three-game homestand to open ACC play. Brohm is not selling it as a formality. He called Wake Forest "one of the most schooled up opponents" Louisville will face, said the Deacons' defense is "very sound" and "coached very well," and said quarterback Gio Lopez "fits great in their system."
That quarterback is the reason the run fits and the coverage matter more than the takeaway column this week. Lopez has completed 62.9% of his throws for 887 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception and added 89 rushing yards and two scores, averaging 325.3 yards of total offense a game, seventh-most in the FBS. Louisville's best cornerback may not be there to meet him. Tayon Holloway left the SMU game early with an undisclosed lower-body injury and did not return, and Brohm said only, "We're going to try to get him ready, but it's too early to tell right now."
Mark Ivey and Steve Ellis, promoted from the staff to share coordinator duties this season with Ivey over the defensive line and Ellis over the secondary, have a unit that took the ball away three times against SMU. Takeaways are not a plan against a quarterback who protects the ball, one interception in three games. The thing worth watching Saturday is whether Louisville tackles better between the tackles and keeps Lopez's first-down throws in front of the safeties. If the Cardinals win this one by three scores, that is what it will look like, not another pick.
The one way Louisville hands this game back
Eleven penalties for 110 yards against SMU was Louisville's worst penalty yardage since 2019, and it followed nine flags against Ole Miss and seven for 90 yards against Villanova, five of those 15-yarders. Brohm has run out of new speeches. "We've tried a lot of things. We probably talked about it last week maybe too much." Wake Forest is no better, the two teams average 94.0 and 95.7 penalty yards a game, among the ACC's most penalized, but Wake Forest is the underdog, and free yardage and fresh downs are what an underdog needs against a defense that has been giving up 5.7 a carry anyway.
One familiar face makes it slightly more pointed. Wake Forest's co-starter at X-receiver, Antonio Meeks, caught 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown at Louisville in 2025 before transferring in January, and he opened this season with a 72-yard touchdown against Akron.
What Louisville has going for it
Lincoln Kienholz arrived from Ohio State with 10 career appearances, 36 career attempts and no starting résumé. Three starts in, the run game is his cushion, and Saturday should not change that. Two hundred sixty-five rushing yards against SMU made 177 passing yards enough.
It also does not need one running back. Isaac Brown, available, told running backs coach Chris Barclay that Keyjuan Brown should start against SMU. Brohm's response was, "That should tell you something about him." Isaac then carried 10 times for 67 yards and scored his first touchdown of the season on a 27-yard run. Keyjuan carried 10 times for a career-high 163 yards, with a 58-yard run to open the third quarter and a 53-yarder with 10:02 left that put Louisville ahead for good on the way to 265 team rushing yards at 7.2 a carry. Whichever one starts, the ground game is the fastest way to keep Lopez on the sideline.
The line that had to replace four of five starters held up too. Against Villanova, Louisville allowed no sacks and ran for 260 yards with Cam Gorin starting at right tackle. And the receivers replacing Chris Bell produced without volume against SMU, with 177 passing yards total, but a 33-yard touchdown to Lawayne McCoy, a 4-yard score to Jaleel Skinner, and a 44-yard Tre Richardson catch that set up the late go-ahead drive. If Wake Forest's offense forces Louisville into a throwing game, that group has not yet been asked to carry one against a good defense.
The stakes on Saturday are straightforward. Win and Louisville's ACC title-game odds sit near 45% with a playoff shot around 20%; lose and those fall to roughly 18% and 8%. Those are two branches of the same weekend, not a number moving.
Clemson at California: root for California
California hosts Clemson at 10:30 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN, and Louisville fans should want the Bears. Louisville does not play Clemson this season, so the only way the Cardinals gain ground on the Tigers is for some other team to beat them, and Cal is about a 33% shot at home to be that team. Louisville's title-game odds land near 41% if Cal wins and near 39% if Clemson does, worth about 2.6 percentage points. Louisville's own noon kickoff Saturday moves that same number far more than Friday night can.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the projections are built.