James Madison scored on its first three possessions at San Diego State and walked off the field at halftime leading 19-0, Camden Coleman's 4-yard run capping a six-play, 75-yard opening drive, Morgan Suarez hitting from 46 and 32, Coleman finding tight end Cole Keller for 7 yards late in the second quarter. The Dukes won 26-13 to go 3-0. Then Billy Napier stood there afterward and said this. "19-0 at half and really feeling like you left a lot out there, frustrated with the red zone penalties and the sacks in the fringe, feeling like you could have really broke it open." Seven penalties for 63 yards, three sacks allowed. That is the coach of an unbeaten team describing a game he thinks his offense gave away points in.
Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, JMU plays at Old Dominion in the TowneBank Royal Rivalry Challenge at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, the second leg of a back-to-back road trip that began in San Diego, and the Dukes' first Sun Belt game since Napier replaced Bob Chesney, who left for UCLA after the 2025 playoff run. The model makes James Madison a 90% favorite, which is not what a rivalry night in Norfolk tends to feel like.
The passing game held up, the run defense bent
The encouraging part is the passing game, and it is specific. Braeden Wisloski caught five balls for 90 yards including a 54-yarder on the opening drive, Corey Scott went 5-for-55, and Keller scored twice from 7 and 20 yards out. Napier said the slot and tight-end matchups are "what makes us difficult to defend... when you're playing bracket coverage." When JC Evans and Coleman were named the two leading candidates for this job back in July, the pitch on Coleman was his prior starting experience, he threw for 2,031 yards and 13 touchdowns as Richmond's 2024 starter. That is further along than a backup holding the fort.
The less encouraging part is the ground on both sides of the ball. San Diego State ran 44 times for 192 yards at 4.4 a carry, and Javion Kinnard took 181 of them on 33 attempts while every other Aztec runner combined for 11 yards on 11 carries. One back, all night. Old Dominion will have watched that. JMU's own defense did not break; it won the game. But a 2025 unit that made teams quit running is not yet this unit.
The return game went quiet after the Wagner explosion, with three punt returns for 20 yards, no kick returns, and none of JMU's 26 points came off special teams, though Suarez made both field-goal tries. Treat the three-touchdown Wagner day as a bonus that may or may not show up in Norfolk rather than part of the formula. And on availability, Seth Cromwell and Gannon Weathersby both appeared in the box score against SDSU, Cromwell in a limited role and Weathersby with three tackles, while Javis Mynatt does not appear and no reporting has addressed his status. Two of the Week 1 absences are trending back; one is still a blank.
Why the rivalry math argues both ways
Last October in Norfolk, JMU won 63-27, and it is worth remembering how. JMU led only 28-27 at the half before outscoring the Monarchs 35-0 after it, with Alonza Barnett III producing 448 total yards and six touchdowns. Barnett is gone. The half that JMU won 28-27 is the half this roster, five returning starters, everyone else new, is more likely to replicate than the 35-0 one.
Old Dominion, meanwhile, was the coaches' pick to finish second in the East with 73 points, right behind JMU's 94.
So the thing to root for is narrow and clear. A clean second quarter is the goal. Drives that reach the ODU 20 and come out with seven instead of a holding call and a sack. A win takes JMU's playoff odds to roughly 36% and its Sun Belt title-game odds to about 92%; a loss leaves those at roughly 16% and 71% instead. At 90% to win, a loss is not something to brace for, but it is the one result this week that would meaningfully reorder the season.
Elsewhere on Saturday
Four games move JMU's playoff number a little, all through the same mechanism, either strengthening a future JMU opponent's résumé or thinning the field of teams competing for at-large consideration. None of them touch the Sun Belt standings.
South Florida at Bowling Green: root for Bowling Green
The biggest swing of the bunch and the least likely. Bowling Green is about a 7% shot at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+. A Falcons upset would knock a strong non-conference contender out of the unbeaten conversation, worth about 4.2 percentage points on JMU's playoff odds, 37.8% in that branch versus 33.6% if South Florida wins. Fun to watch, not something to plan around.
Liberty at Coastal Carolina: root for Coastal Carolina
Thursday night, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Coastal is about an 11% home underdog. JMU closes the regular season at home against the Chanticleers, so a Coastal win makes that Week 13 game a better line on the Dukes' résumé, at 37.4% versus 33.5%, a difference of about 3.9 points.
UConn at Miami (OH): root for UConn
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the likeliest of these to break right at about 67%. JMU visits UConn in Week 11, and a Huskies win there is worth roughly 2.4 points, 34.7% against 32.3%.
App State at NC State: root for App State
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU, with App State around 19% to win in Raleigh. The Mountaineers host JMU in Week 8, and an upset here would make that trip count for more, at 35.4% versus 33.6%, about 1.9 points. Smallest effect on the board, and the one you can check on your phone.
Week-by-week numbers and the full Week 4 picture are at the interactive guide, and the model is explained at /methodology.