Kevin Jennings threw five touchdown passes before halftime against UC Davis, then sat out the second half of SMU's 56-10 win. He completed 14 of 16 passes for 337 yards without an interception. SMU finished with zero giveaways, keeping the ball safe without sacrificing the big plays.
Now take that offense to Louisville. SMU visits Saturday, September 19, at 2:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2, with a 47.5% chance to win. The model puts the Mustangs' playoff chances at 30.2% with a victory and 12% with a loss; their ACC title-game chances are 68.4% and 25.6%, respectively.
Keep the production, protect the possessions
At Florida State, Jennings threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns, but his two interceptions included an end-zone throw and another with the game tied in the fourth quarter. Jalen Hale's fumble and Yamir Knight's muffed punt completed SMU's four giveaways; Florida State turned those chances into seven points. Ball security was a team problem, so receivers and returners belong in this week's watch alongside the quarterback.
UC Davis had reached the FCS playoffs in each of the previous two seasons, but that level of opposition limits what the rout says about SMU's ACC title prospects. The next step is to keep attacking downfield while protecting possessions against conference resistance.
Jennings already has a useful history here. In SMU's 2024 win at Louisville, he passed for 281 yards and ran for 113, including a 59-yard touchdown. He has beaten this opponent with both his arm and his legs.
The receiving group around him has changed. Jordan Hudson, Matthew Hibner and RJ Maryland finished their SMU careers after combining for 1,524 receiving yards in 2025. Sixteen Mustangs caught passes against UC Davis. That breadth matters because Rhett Lashlee said this is the best collection of playmakers SMU has put around Jennings and that the offense doesn't need a fixed go-to target; he specifically pointed to involving Derrick McFall and Theo Melin Öhrström after their quieter opener. At Louisville, watch whether Jennings can keep finding the available receiver when the game demands consequential completions.
The backfield deserves a closer look, too. Dramekco Green started against UC Davis, while Kendrick Raphael returned to game action after his opener shoulder issue and scored on one of his three carries. That participation did not establish full recovery or his Louisville workload; a touchdown alone is no reason to assume the usual share of carries is settled.
Make Louisville earn its possessions
Louisville committed no turnovers in either of its first two games. Its new quarterback, Kienholz, passed for 307 yards against Ole Miss and 332 against Villanova, with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in each game. SMU should prepare to force stops rather than count on donated possessions.
The Mustangs held Florida State to 2-of-15 on third down and UC Davis to 2-of-13, but their rushing yards allowed dropped from 199 to 62 against those different levels of opposition. The third-down results are encouraging; containing the run against Louisville would add the conference-level performance fans still want to see.
That matters during the defensive handoff after Scott Symons' departure for the Dallas Cowboys, with Maurice Crum Jr. designated to take over play-calling alongside co-coordinator Rickey Hunley Jr. Lashlee credited Crum and Hunley together for preserving the defense's strengths and improving its third-down package after UC Davis. Who called the defensive plays against UC Davis remains unclear. Watch whether their package can keep producing stops when Louisville has both passing and running options available.
SMU's first three weeks under the ACC's nine-game league schedule include trips to Florida State and Louisville. The Mustangs arrive 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the ACC after winning the first of those road games. A second conference road win would give them something the UC Davis rout could not, namely another victory banked in the title race.
The outside slate offers smaller, less likely assists. Wake Forest has the biggest one. The interactive guide has the full outcome comparisons; the methodology explains the model.
Miami at Wake Forest: root for Wake Forest
Friday, September 18, 6:30 p.m. CT, ESPN.
Wake Forest has a 13% chance to win, and an upset is worth 5.0 percentage points of SMU playoff probability. That means 25% if Wake wins versus 20% if Miami wins. A Miami conference loss directly helps SMU's ACC position, with the Mustangs' title-game chances also higher in the Wake victory branch. This is the outside game worth making time for if the underdog keeps it close.
Michigan State at Notre Dame: root for Michigan State
Saturday, September 19, 6:30 p.m. CT, NBC.
Michigan State has just a 3% chance to win, so an upset is unlikely. The payoff is 3.4 percentage points of SMU playoff probability, with 24% in the Spartans-win branch versus 20.5% with a Notre Dame victory. SMU visits Notre Dame in Week 12, so the benefit involves a future opponent showing vulnerability; this game cannot hand an ACC competitor a league loss. Enjoy a surprise if Michigan State supplies one, but don't build the weekend around it.
UTSA at Texas: root for UTSA
Saturday, September 19, 7 p.m. CT, SECN+.
UTSA has a 7% chance to win, and SMU's playoff probability is 2.2 percentage points higher with a UTSA victory than with a Texas victory. A Texas loss helps SMU against national playoff competition without affecting the ACC standings. A fun upset to check on after the Mustangs finish, with a smaller payoff than Wake Forest's.
Syracuse at Pittsburgh: root for Syracuse
Thursday, September 17, 6:30 p.m. CT, ESPN.
Syracuse has a 7% chance to win. An Orange victory would put a conference loss on Pittsburgh and give SMU 3.0 percentage points of additional ACC title-game probability. That means 48.8% with a Syracuse win versus 45.7% with a Pittsburgh win. An unlikely upset would be a bonus on Thursday. Enjoy Pittsburgh losing ground if Syracuse can pull it off.