Mario Cristobal started Bryce Fitzgerald at cornerback and elevated freshman JJ Dunnigan into the starting secondary against Florida A&M with OJ Frederique unavailable. Miami won 77-7, and Dunnigan led the Hurricanes with five tackles. Fitzgerald's game-book line recorded no tackle, breakup or interception; it did not establish how well he covered.
The absences extend beyond Frederique. After FAMU, Cristobal said Xavier Lucas would miss approximately a month, Frederique would be out longer and Ja'Boree Antoine had been lost in the preseason. Miami is replacing several cornerbacks at once.
No. 5 Miami visits Wake Forest on Friday, September 18, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, with an 86.5% chance to win. In his press conference this week, Cristobal praised Fitzgerald's traits for the move from safety to corner and Dunnigan's understanding of the defense. Those roles now bring a specific concern about covering receivers while accounting for a quarterback who can run.
Gio Lopez has thrown for 575 yards and four touchdowns without an interception through two Wake starts. At Purdue, he ran for 59 yards and two touchdowns, then supplied the winning two-point run in double overtime. Miami needs to contain him without letting its defensive backs abandon receivers when he threatens to leave the pocket.
Carlos Hernandez is the target to keep track of. He led Wake with six catches for 88 yards at Purdue, including a 15-yard fourth-down catch in double overtime that kept the winning possession alive. Getting Wake to a long-yardage down will only help if Miami finishes the coverage.
Miami's first two opposing offenses scored no touchdowns; FAMU's lone touchdown came on a late fumble recovery. In Corey Hetherman's first season as coordinator, Miami ranked fifth nationally in scoring defense and fourth in sacks, leading the ACC in both. Miami has kept opponents' offenses out of the end zone again this season, but has yet to force a turnover. Cristobal said this week that Miami had yet to generate a takeaway and Wake had yet to commit a turnover. Root for the first Miami takeaway, but don't count on Wake donating a possession.
Darian Mensah's efficient passing gives Miami reason to believe it can outscore mistakes by its depleted secondary. Against FAMU, he completed 14 of 15 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns without an interception or sack before reserves took over after halftime. Miami piled up a program-record 856 yards, never punted and scored touchdowns on its first 11 substantive possessions, excluding a halftime kneel. That is reason to feel better about the offense's championship potential, though FAMU was an FCS opponent facing its second ranked team, and playing its second game at Hard Rock Stadium, in five days. Such a runaway offered little occasion to judge execution under sustained pressure.
That distinction matters in ACC play. A tiebreak kept Miami out of last season's conference championship game; its losses included four turnovers and nine penalties against Louisville, then 12 penalties and an overtime interception at SMU. Friday's conditional playoff odds are 83.5% with a Miami win versus 66.4% with a loss. The corresponding ACC championship-game chances are 92.2% and 73.6%.
Saturday's most practical outside interest is Louisville. The larger prizes require upsets, especially at Indiana. The interactive guide has the full outcome branches; the methodology explains the model.
SMU at Louisville: root for Louisville
Saturday, September 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2. Louisville has a 52% chance to win, making this the closest thing to an ordinary favor on the board. An SMU conference loss helps Miami directly in the ACC race. Miami's title-game chances are 90.7% with a Louisville win versus 88.6% with an SMU win. The preferred result also carries a 1.9-percentage-point playoff benefit.
Western Kentucky at Indiana: root for Western Kentucky
The model gives Western Kentucky a 0% chance to win.
Saturday, September 19, 4 p.m. ET, Peacock. Western Kentucky has just a 0.4% chance to win. An Indiana loss would help Miami in national top-seed competition, with 9.3 percentage points of first-round-bye benefit. Miami's bye chances are 43.5% in the upset branch versus 34.2% if Indiana wins. A huge bonus if it happens; check the score before committing your afternoon.
Buffalo at Penn State: root for Buffalo
Saturday, September 19, noon ET, BTN. Buffalo has a 3% chance to win. Beating Penn State would hurt a national playoff competitor and give Miami a 2.8-percentage-point playoff benefit, without changing the ACC standings. An unlikely bonus, worth a look if Buffalo keeps it close.
USC at Rutgers: root for Rutgers
Saturday, September 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS. Rutgers has an 11% chance to win, with a 1.4-percentage-point playoff benefit for Miami. A USC loss helps through national playoff competition. Keep Louisville on the main screen unless Rutgers gives you a reason to switch.