Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Lopez Sanusi pressured the throw Travis Anderson intercepted against Memphis. Boise State’s defense held the Tigers scoreless after halftime in a 38-20 win, but also surrendered 519 yards, including 384 through the air. That is the encouraging, and unfinished, part of the defensive performance. The front helped produce a takeaway without establishing dependable coverage for an entire game.
South Dakota visits Saturday, September 19, at 8 p.m. Mountain on CBSSN. Fan Watch gives Boise State a 99.3% chance to win. With that much separation expected, watch whether the Broncos can make passing downs difficult from the opening possession. They allowed 378 passing yards at Oregon before Memphis threw for 384; another win alone would not settle that concern.
The secondary also has a personal connection to this opponent. Boise State defensive back Roman Tillmon played at South Dakota, recording 94 tackles and six pass breakups there in 2025. His former team brings a quarterback worth watching. Austyn Modrzewski has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his first three starts, with 11 total tied for the FCS lead, according to South Dakota’s preview. Root for Boise State’s coverage to make him hold the ball long enough for the rush to matter, and to hold up when pressure does not arrive.
Maddux Madsen threw for 221 yards without an interception or sack, and starting receivers Akeem Wright, Rasean Jones and Cam Bates combined for 169 receiving yards. Wright caught the fourth-down touchdown. Boise State’s rebuilt receiving group needs to keep converting key downs while Madsen keeps avoiding turnovers.
Special teams helped make the margin, too. Boen Phelps blocked Memphis’ opening-possession field-goal attempt, and Bates returned a third-quarter punt 72 yards for a touchdown. Those plays denied points and supplied seven more; Boise State should welcome another contribution like that without needing it to compensate for loose coverage.
Spencer Danielson credited coaching adjustments and player execution for the turnaround, while stressing that allowing more than 500 yards needed quick correction. After three consecutive Mountain West titles, Boise State has reason to expect immediate Pac-12 contention, but the Broncos still need to show they can finish on the road after their missed late opportunity at Oregon. Western Michigan awaits away in Week 4, followed by the conference opener against Utah State in Week 5.
James Madison at San Diego State: root for San Diego State
Saturday, September 19, at 8 p.m. Mountain on The CW Network, the same kickoff as Boise State.
The Aztecs have a 23% chance to win, so this is an appealing upset to check during breaks. Boise State hosts San Diego State in Week 12; an Aztecs win strengthens a future opponent.
The model puts Boise State’s playoff chances at 6.1% if San Diego State wins and 4.3% if James Madison wins. Those are alternative outcomes, a 1.8-percentage-point advantage for an Aztecs victory. That is worth a cheer, but it is no result to count on. The interactive guide includes the projections, with the calculation explained in the methodology.
Back in Boise, root for the secondary to stay connected to receivers throughout the game. Four quarters of sound coverage would give the Broncos more to carry forward than another successful halftime correction.