Buffalo quarterback Jason Wright took the fourth-and-goal snap from the 2-yard line as the clock ran out Saturday, and Scoop Gardner Jr. stopped him short of the end zone to end the game. Western Michigan won 20-17 on the road to open MAC play, and only after falling behind 17-10 in the fourth quarter, tying it on Broc Lowry's 5-yard touchdown run and taking the lead on Dieter Kelly's 38-yard field goal with 79 seconds left.
Pieces of that night were genuinely encouraging. The front produced its best rush of the season. Five sacks and seven tackles for loss spread across six different players, with linebacker Justyce Betts leading everyone with nine tackles and breaking up a second-down pass on the final defensive series. For a defense that had to replace last year's sack production, that is the clearest sign yet that pressure is coming back.
The ground game was the opposite. Western Michigan ran 37 times for 115 yards, 3.1 per carry. Jalen Buckley carried 15 times for 62 yards and a touchdown, Lolo Mataele managed 5 yards on eight carries, and Lowry's scrambles covered most of the rest. This is supposed to be a run-first team, and right now the run is Buckley and the quarterback.
That gap between billing and output is the season's through-line. MAC head coaches picked Western Michigan first in the preseason poll with 138 points, nine first-place votes and nine of 13 votes to win the title game. Since then there has been a Week 1 loss at Michigan before two straight wins, then a home date with Boise State that both teams saw as a chance for a signature win and that instead became Boise State's 11th consecutive win over a MAC opponent, dropping the Broncos to 2-2 and gutting their Group of Six playoff case.
Kent State at Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Kent State visits Waldo Stadium as a 13.5-point underdog, and the model gives Western Michigan a 94% chance to win. That is as close to a free week as the MAC schedule offers. The Golden Flashes rank 134th nationally in scoring offense at 15.0 points per game and 119th in scoring defense.
So the result is not really the question. What Kent State offers is a chance to finally finish drives against a beatable defense. Lowry has 739 passing yards and four touchdowns on the year and Buckley has 287 rushing yards and five scores, and a day where the backs behind Buckley actually move the ball would say more than the final margin does. Watch whether anyone other than Buckley and Lowry's legs produces yards, and whether the pass rush that showed up at Buffalo can keep showing up at home.
The standings math is real, too. Win and Western Michigan sits around a 64.5% chance to reach the MAC title game; lose and that falls to roughly 36%.
Three MAC games worth a glance
Every one of these is a direct conference-standings play. A loss by a team ahead of or alongside Western Michigan in the MAC race is worth a little in the title-game math. All three kick at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Eastern Michigan at Akron: root for Akron
The least likely and most valuable of the three. Akron wins about 16% of the time, and an Eastern Michigan loss is worth about 3.8 percentage points on Western Michigan's title-game odds. Eastern Michigan is a league rival the Broncos still host in November, and knocking a game off its ledger now helps. Fun to watch for, not something to count on.
Central Michigan at Ohio: root for Central Michigan
Western Michigan plays at Central Michigan next week, so the instinct is to want the Chippewas beaten up. The standings say otherwise. Ohio is the team whose MAC record matters more here. A Central Michigan win, about a 32% proposition, is worth roughly 2.4 percentage points.
Buffalo at Toledo: root for Buffalo
Toledo is the clearest threat in the league, and Western Michigan plays there in Week 8, so a Buffalo upset would be the most satisfying result of the day. It is also the longest shot, at about 11%, and worth about 2.3 percentage points. The team that nearly beat Western Michigan last week suddenly becomes everyone's favorite road dog.
Kent State is the game. The rest is loose change that would be nice to collect.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.