Washington safety Rylon Dillard-Allen picked off Jayden Maiava for the first interception of his career, Darin Conley got home on the pressure that caused it, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt finished Saturday night with zero catches on four targets, his one would-be 37-yard touchdown erased by an illegal-formation flag. USC still won 25-21 at home, because Jahkeem Stewart returned a strip-sack fumble 48 yards and the defense shut Washington out in the fourth quarter. But Maiava's night included only 143 passing yards through two quarters and a 2-of-6 third-down start, and USC entered as a 9.5-point favorite and won by four, with Washington's last drive starting at its own 5-yard line and stalling on an incomplete fourth-down pass with 39 seconds left. That is two straight weeks of an offense that does not look like the one that opened the season.
The penalties are the thread. USC committed nine against Washington, a season high, including the flag that wiped out Dixon-Wyatt's touchdown and an unsportsmanlike-conduct call, and Riley said they "were just massive in this game." He had already said it once this year. After the Louisiana win, with eight penalties for 78 yards, he called them "the most alarming thing for us tonight". A coach flagging the same problem in September and again in October is not a one-night accident, and Beaver Stadium is the worst place in the Big Ten to keep committing pre-snap mistakes.
The game: USC at Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on NBC
Penn State is hosting this White Out game, a tradition dating to 2004 in which the school is 13-8. The Nittany Lions need it. They blew a 17-0 lead to Wisconsin, then lost 34-13 at Northwestern, and sit 0-2 in the Big Ten looking for a first conference win.
The reason Trojans fans should care beyond the standings is on Penn State's sideline. D'Anton Lynn coordinated USC's defense in 2024 and 2025, cutting the scoring defense from 34.4 points a game in 2023 to 24.1 in his first year, then left for Penn State, where he played cornerback, in January. He knows USC's protection calls, Riley's tendencies and the route concepts USC leans on in long-yardage. He also has a unit that gave up a season-high 413 rushing yards at Northwestern, with the line repeatedly blown off the ball. That is the week in one sentence. The coach who knows USC best is running the defense least able to stop USC's running game right now.
Which puts the center in a real spotlight. Tobias Raymond has started at center since Kilian O'Connor's season-ending injury, and USC gave up only one sack to Washington. Snap communication in a stadium that loud is a different exercise than snap communication at the Coliseum. If Raymond and the line can hold up and move Penn State's front, USC does not need Maiava to be perfect.
Trent Mosley, who has 13 receptions for 255 yards and four touchdowns this season, was reported doubtful again for the Washington game with the knee injury that kept him out at Rutgers, so the receiver rotation stays unsettled. Tanook Hines and Zacharyus Williams led the group against Washington.
USC does get a starting linebacker back. Desman Stephens II was ejected for targeting on the hit that concussed Oregon's Dante Moore, then drew criticism for celebrating on the sideline while Moore was down; the suspension that followed cost him the Washington game. His absence did not stop that unit from turning in its best game since the loss to Oregon, and Riley gave the credit directly to his coordinator. "I thought Gary called a really good game, and the players responded." If the offense stays sloppy, that defense is the reason USC can still win this.
The market has no idea who to favor. As of Sunday, one consensus line had USC by 2.5 while another tracked Penn State by 1.5. Fan Watch's model is less generous. It gives USC a 34% chance to win on the road. The payoff is still the biggest on the board. Win and USC's playoff odds sit near 20% with an average projected seed of 8.7; lose and they fall to about 6% at a 9.3 seed. Nothing else in Week 6 comes close to that swing.
Kent State at Western Michigan: root for Western Michigan
Western Michigan wins this 94% of the time, so you will probably never think about it. A Broncos win is worth about 1.4 percentage points to USC's playoff odds. Pure national math, with one more mid-tier conference contender sorted out behind the Trojans rather than a result that touches the Big Ten standings. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, hours before USC kicks in State College.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.