Baylor Hayes returned at quarterback against North Texas on Thursday night, went 25-of-43 for 211 yards with three touchdown passes, and ran for two more scores, including the 1-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left that forced overtime. It was his first full game after a two-game absence. Then, in overtime, Tulsa scored and went for the win instead of the tie, and Oran Singleton Jr. was ruled short of the goal line on replay review. North Texas 45, Tulsa 44. The American Conference opener for both teams sent Tulsa to 3-2 overall and 0-1 in league play.
So the health question is answered and the hard question isn't. Kevin Barbay took over as Tulsa's offensive coordinator this year. With Hayes back, Singleton caught 11 passes for 104 yards and David Wells Jr. caught two touchdown passes, the short-area scoring Barbay was hired to produce. Owen Carey made his only field goal and all five extra points. The point total was never the problem.
Tulsa goes to Annapolis on Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN, and the simulations give the Golden Hurricane about a 13% chance. That number is mostly about the other side of the ball. Josh Reardon's defense, the one unit with coordinator continuity from last season, has been giving up yardage in bunches. Arkansas outgained Tulsa 441-241 and held the ball for 37:31, and North Texas followed with 559 total yards, four touchdown passes and 219 rushing yards to one back, even while Tulsa was intercepting two passes and knocking the ball loose on a Kyran Duhon sack. Takeaways have been covering for a unit that is getting moved. Navy is going to try to move it on the ground, snap after snap, and keep Hayes on the sideline.
That is why the thing to watch early is simple and unglamorous, and it comes down to whether Tulsa's front can get Navy off the field on third down before halftime. If it can, Hayes and that passing game are good enough to hang around in a one-score game. If Navy grinds out long drives, the 13% is generous.
There is one real wrinkle worth knowing. Navy leads the all-time series 9-2 and has won the last three meetings, but it is 6-0 against Tulsa away from Annapolis and only 3-2 at home. Both Tulsa wins, in 2006 and 2020, came at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Small sample, obviously. But if Tulsa is going to steal one from a program it has lost to three straight times, the venue is not the obstacle.
Tre Lamb called the North Texas result "one of the toughest losses I've ever been a part of", and he said it after choosing to go for two rather than kick and keep playing. That decision is worth remembering, because it tells you what he thinks this team is. It is good enough to win now, not good enough to survive extra possessions against a team gaining 559 yards. Nothing about Saturday changes if Tulsa plays well and loses again. What changes is a win.
Full breakdown and the week's numbers are in the interactive guide, and the model is explained at methodology.